Related papers: Geometric approach for non pharmaceutical interven…
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are crucial for controlling pandemics, but existing research often overlooks the heterogeneity of individual behavior, which can lead to inaccurate evaluations of the effectiveness of strategies. In…
Epidemic risk assessment poses inherent challenges, with traditional approaches often failing to balance health outcomes and economic constraints. This paper presents a data-driven decision support tool that models epidemiological dynamics…
We present a phenomenological procedure of dealing with the COVID--19 data provided by government health agencies of eleven different countries. Instead of using the (exact or approximate) solutions to the SIR (or other) model(s) to fit the…
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…
The COVID-19 pandemic has emphasized the need for a robust understanding of epidemic models. Current models of epidemics are classified as either mechanistic or non-mechanistic: mechanistic models make explicit assumptions on the dynamics…
Infectious diseases and human behavior are intertwined. On one side, our movements and interactions are the engines of transmission. On the other, the unfolding of viruses might induce changes to our daily activities. While intuitive, our…
Mathematical modelling is a widely used approach to understand and interpret clinical trial data. This modelling typically involves fitting mechanistic mathematical models to data from individual trial participants. Despite the widespread…
COVID-19 pandemic has sharply projected the globally persistent multi-dimensional fundamental challenges in securing general socio-economic wellbeing of the society. The problems intensify with increasing population densities and also vary…
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including mask-wearing, physical distancing, and hygiene measures, provide the primary means of reducing transmission in the early stages of an epidemic. Individuals adopt one of two…
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential threat of future epidemics caused by novel viruses, we developed a flexible framework for modeling disease intervention effects. This tool is intended to aid decision makers at multiple…
Epidemic models play a key role in understanding and responding to the emerging COVID-19 pandemic. Widely used compartmental models are static and are of limited use to evaluate intervention strategies with the emerging pandemic. Applying…
A crucial aspect of managing a public health crisis is to effectively balance prevention and mitigation strategies, while taking their socio-economic impact into account. In particular, determining the influence of different…
Facing a global epidemic of new infectious diseases such as COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which reduce transmission rates without medical actions, are being implemented around the world to mitigate spreads. One of the…
Spatiotemporal modelling of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 involves using a variety of epidemiological metrics such as regional proportion of cases or regional positivity rates. Although observing their changes over time is critical…
In an emerging pandemic, policymakers need to make important decisions with limited information, for example choosing between a mitigation, suppression or elimination strategy. These strategies may require trade-offs to be made between the…
A model-based signal processing framework is proposed for pandemic trend forecasting and control, by using non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) at regional and country levels worldwide. The control objective is to prescribe quantifiable…
To date, the only effective means to respond to the spreading of COVID-19 pandemic are non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which entail policies to reduce social activity and mobility restrictions. Quantifying their effect is…
To curb the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2, many countries relied on nation-wide implementation of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures, resulting in substantial socio-economic impacts. Potentially, subnational implementations might have…
Some basic facts that enable or constrain efforts to "flatten the curve" by non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) are summarized and placed in the current context of the COVID-19 epidemic. Analytical formulas are presented for a simple…
We propose a general Bayesian approach to modeling epidemics such as COVID-19. The approach grew out of specific analyses conducted during the pandemic, in particular an analysis concerning the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions…