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We establish a simple variance inequality for U-statistics whose underlying sequence of random variables is an ergodic Markov Chain. The constants in this inequality are explicit and depend on computable bounds on the mixing rate of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-03-05 Gersende Fort , Eric Moulines , Pierre Priouret , Pierre Vandekerkhove

For a relatively large class of well-behaved absorbing (or killed) finite Markov chains, we give detailed quantitative estimates regarding the behavior of the chain before it is absorbed (or killed). Typical examples are random walks on…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-13 Persi Diaconis , Kelsey Houston-Edwards , Laurent Saloff-Coste

In some systems, the connecting probability (and thus the percolation process) between two sites depends on the geometric distance between them. To understand such process, we propose gravitationally correlated percolation models for…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-02-19 Chen-Ping Zhu , Long-Tao Jia , Long-Long Sun , Beom Jun Kim , Bing-Hong Wang , Chin-Kun Hu , H. E. Stanley

We consider a stationary regularly varying time series which can be expressedas a function of a geometrically ergodic Markov chain. We obtain practical conditionsfor the weak convergence of the tail array sums and feasible estimators…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-25 Rafal Kulik , Philippe Soulier , Olivier Wintenberger , Rafa Kulik

We consider a bivariate, possibly non-homogeneous, finite-state Markov chain $(X,U)=\{(X_t,U_t)\}_{t=1}^n$. We are interested in the marginal process $X$, which typically is not a Markov chain. The goal is to find a realization (path)…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-28 Oskar Soop , Jüri Lember

Consider $G=SL_2(\mathbb{Z})/\{\pm I\}$ acting on the complex upper half plane $H$ by $h_M(z)=\frac{az+b}{cz+d},$ for $M \in G$. Let $D=\{z \in H: |z|\geq 1, |\Re(z)|\leq 1/2\}$. We consider the set $\mathcal{E} \subset G$ with the $9$…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-09 Gerard Letac , Mauro Piccioni

We study stochastic approximation procedures for approximately solving a $d$-dimensional linear fixed point equation based on observing a trajectory of length $n$ from an ergodic Markov chain. We first exhibit a non-asymptotic bound of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-14 Wenlong Mou , Ashwin Pananjady , Martin J. Wainwright , Peter L. Bartlett

Kirchhoff's matrix tree theorem is a well-known result that gives a formula for the number of spanning trees in a finite, connected graph in terms of the graph Laplacian matrix. A closely related result is Wilson's algorithm for putting the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-11 Michael J. Kozdron , Larissa M. Richards , Daniel W. Stroock

We prove a Chernoff-type bound for sums of matrix-valued random variables sampled via a regular (aperiodic and irreducible) finite Markov chain. Specially, consider a random walk on a regular Markov chain and a Hermitian matrix-valued…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-30 Jiezhong Qiu , Chi Wang , Ben Liao , Richard Peng , Jie Tang

Approximating the stationary probability of a state in a Markov chain through Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques is, in general, inefficient. Standard random walk approaches require $\tilde{O}(\tau/\pi(v))$ operations to approximate the…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2018-01-03 Marco Bressan , Enoch Peserico , Luca Pretto

Let $G$ be a finite tree with root $r$ and associate to the internal vertices of $G$ a collection of transition probabilities for a simple nondegenerate Markov chain. Embedd $G$ into a graph $G^\prime$ constructed by gluing finite linear…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Victor de la Pena , Henryk Gzyl , Patrick McDonald

Let $P$ be the transition matrix of a finite, irreducible and reversible Markov chain. We say the continuous time Markov chain $X$ has transition matrix $P$ and speed $\lambda$ if it jumps at rate $\lambda$ according to the matrix $P$. Fix…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-26 Louigi Addario-Berry , Roberto I. Oliveira , Yuval Peres , Perla Sousi

The paper concerns lattice triangulations, that is, triangulations of the integer points in a polygon in $\mathbb{R}^2$ whose vertices are also integer points. Lattice triangulations have been studied extensively both as geometric objects…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-03 Pietro Caputo , Fabio Martinelli , Alistair Sinclair , Alexandre Stauffer

We study asymptotic percolation as $N\to \infty$ in an infinite random graph ${\cal G}_N$ embedded in the hierarchical group of order $N$, with connection probabilities depending on an ultrametric distance between vertices. ${\cal G}_N$ is…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 D. A. Dawson , L. G. Gorostiza

Percolation refers to an interesting class of problems related to the properties of disordered systems, usually formulated in terms of objects randomly placed on an underlying lattice or continuum. Despite the simplicity of the setup, most…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-02-22 Abraham Levitan

Time-homogeneous Markov chains are often used as disease progression models in studies of cost-effectiveness and optimal decision-making. Maximum likelihood estimation of these models can be challenging when data are collected at a time…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-26 Duncan Ermini Leaf

Consider a sequence of i.i.d. random Lipschitz functions $\{\Psi_n\}_{n \geq 0}$. Using this sequence we can define a Markov chain via the recursive formula $R_{n+1} = \Psi_{n+1}(R_n)$. It is a well known fact that under some mild moment…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-21 Piotr Dyszewski

Predicting how materials behave under realistic conditions requires understanding the statistical distribution of atomic configurations on crystal lattices, a problem central to alloy design, catalysis, and the study of phase transitions.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-03-17 Xiaochen Du , Juno Nam , Sulin Liu , Rafael Gómez-Bombarelli

This paper develops a new class of conditional Markov jump processes with regime switching and paths dependence. The key novel feature of the developed process lies on its ability to switch the transition rate as it moves from one state to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-16 Budhi Surya

We study the mixing time of a systematic scan Markov chain for sampling from the uniform distribution on proper 7-colourings of a finite rectangular sub-grid of the infinite square lattice, the grid. A systematic scan Markov chain cycles…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-04-01 Markus Jalsenius , Kasper Pedersen