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Consider the problem of estimating the causal effect of some attribute of a text document; for example: what effect does writing a polite vs. rude email have on response time? To estimate a causal effect from observational data, we need to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-09 Lin Gui , Victor Veitch

Characteristic-function based goodness-of-fit tests are suggested for multivariate observations. The test statistics, which are straightforward to compute, are defined as two-sample criteria measuring discrepancy between multivariate ranks…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-01 Zdeněk Hlávka , Šárka Hudecová , Simos G. Meintanis

We consider the problem of extrapolating treatment effects across heterogeneous populations (``sites"/``contexts"). We consider an idealized scenario in which the researcher observes cross-sectional data for a large number of units across…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-03 Konrad Menzel

The research questions that motivate transportation safety studies are causal in nature. Safety researchers typically use observational data to answer such questions, but often without appropriate causal inference methodology. The field of…

Applications · Statistics 2011-07-26 Vishesh Karwa , Aleksandra B. Slavković , Eric T. Donnell

We consider the challenges associated with causal inference in settings where data from a randomized trial is augmented with control data from an external source to improve efficiency in estimating the average treatment effect (ATE).…

In the absence of randomized controlled and natural experiments, it is necessary to balance the distributions of (observable) covariates of the treated and control groups in order to obtain an unbiased estimate of a causal effect of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-02 Martin Cousineau , Vedat Verter , Susan A. Murphy , Joelle Pineau

Objective: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are widely considered as gold standard for assessing the effectiveness of new health interventions. When treatment non-compliance is present in RCTs, the treatment effect in the subgroup of…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-25 Theodosios Papazoglou , Ed Waddingham , Alastair Young

While average treatment effects (ATE) and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) provide valuable population- and subgroup-level summaries, they fail to capture uncertainty at the individual level. For high-stakes decision-making,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Juraj Bodik , Yaxuan Huang , Bin Yu

In this paper, we study causal inference when the treatment variable is an aggregation of multiple sub-treatment variables. Researchers often report marginal causal effects for the aggregated treatment, implicitly assuming that the target…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-08 Carolina Caetano , Gregorio Caetano , Brantly Callaway , Derek Dyal

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference using observational data consisting of outcome, treatment, and a set of confounders. The conditional distribution of the outcome given treatment and confounders is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Yongseok Hur , Joonhyuk Jung , Juhee Lee

Traditional causal inference approaches leverage observational study data to estimate the difference in observed and unobserved outcomes for a potential treatment, known as the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE). However, CATE…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-22 Tianhui Zhou , William E Carson , David Carlson

The idea of covariate balance is at the core of causal inference. Inverse propensity weights play a central role because they are the unique set of weights that balance the covariate distributions of different treatment groups. We discuss…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-29 Eli Ben-Michael , Avi Feller , David A. Hirshberg , José R. Zubizarreta

The Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a foundational metric in causal inference, widely used to assess intervention efficacy in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). However, in many applications -- particularly in healthcare -- this static…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-23 Julianna Piskorz , Krzysztof Kacprzyk , Harry Amad , Mihaela van der Schaar

Counterfactual explanation is one branch of interpretable machine learning that produces a perturbation sample to change the model's original decision. The generated samples can act as a recommendation for end-users to achieve their desired…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Tri Dung Duong , Qian Li , Guandong Xu

Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-16 Connor T. Jerzak , Fredrik Johansson , Adel Daoud

Estimating causal effects from observational data is inherently challenging due to the lack of observable counterfactual outcomes and even the presence of unmeasured confounding. Traditional methods often rely on restrictive, untestable…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-07 Li Chen , Xiaotong Shen , Wei Pan

Standard measures of effect, including the risk ratio, the odds ratio, and the risk difference, are associated with a number of well-described shortcomings, and no consensus exists about the conditions under which investigators should…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-08 Anders Huitfeldt , Andrew Goldstein , Sonja A. Swanson

Estimating an individual's potential outcomes under counterfactual treatments is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, impulse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-13 Yulun Wu , Layne C. Price , Zichen Wang , Vassilis N. Ioannidis , Robert A. Barton , George Karypis

Selecting causal inference models for estimating individualized treatment effects (ITE) from observational data presents a unique challenge since the counterfactual outcomes are never observed. The problem is challenged further in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-15 Trent Kyono , Ioana Bica , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

Many causal quantities are only partially identifiable due to the inherent missingness of potential outcomes, and the associated partial identification (PI) sets can be obtained by solving an optimal transport (OT) problem. Covariates often…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-25 Sirui Lin , Zijun Gao , Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn