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The ideas of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are widely used to reason about the probabilistic predictions of machine-learning models. We identify incoherence in existing discussions of these ideas and suggest this stems from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Freddie Bickford Smith , Jannik Kossen , Eleanor Trollope , Mark van der Wilk , Adam Foster , Tom Rainforth

Uncertainty is a key feature of any machine learning model and is particularly important in neural networks, which tend to be overconfident. This overconfidence is worrying under distribution shifts, where the model performance silently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-18 Arthur Thuy , Dries F. Benoit

In nuclear engineering studies, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of simulation computer codes can be faced to the complexity of the input and/or the output variables. If these variables represent a transient or a spatial phenomenon, the…

Applications · Statistics 2023-12-05 Anne-Laure Popelin , Bertrand Iooss

Uncertainty is inherent to most data, including vector field data, yet it is often omitted in visualizations and representations. Effective uncertainty visualization can enhance the understanding and interpretability of vector field data.…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-05-01 Timbwaoga A. J. Ouermi , Jixian Li , Zachary Morrow , Bart van Bloemen Waanders , Chris R. Johnson

This paper investigates the role of text in visualizations, specifically the impact of text position, semantic content, and biased wording. Two empirical studies were conducted based on two tasks (predicting data trends and appraising bias)…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-01-09 Chase Stokes , Cindy Xiong Bearfield , Marti A. Hearst

The communication of uncertainty estimates, predictions and insights based on spatio-temporal models is important for decision-making as it impacts the utilisation and interpretation of information. Bivariate mapping is commonly used for…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2021-12-15 Letitia Sabburg , Alan Woodley , Kerrie Mengersen

Many visual representations, such as volume-rendered images and metro maps, feature a noticeable amount of information loss. At a glance, there seem to be numerous opportunities for viewers to misinterpret the data being visualized, hence…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2022-04-05 Min Chen , Alfie Abdul-Rahman , Deborah Silver , Mateu Sbert

The ability of to explain neural network decisions goes hand in hand with their safe deployment. Several methods have been proposed to highlight features important for a given network decision. However, there is no consensus on how to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-03-23 Agnieszka Grabska-Barwińska

Uncertainty quantification is a key pillar of trustworthy machine learning. It enables safe reactions under unsafe inputs, like predicting only when the machine learning model detects sufficient evidence, discarding anomalous data, or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-27 Michael Kirchhof

Inverse problems play a key role in modern image/signal processing methods. However, since they are generally ill-conditioned or ill-posed due to lack of observations, their solutions may have significant intrinsic uncertainty. Analysing…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-09-09 Xiaohao Cai , Marcelo Pereyra , Jason D. McEwen

This paper presents an interactive technique to explain visual patterns in network visualizations to analysts who do not understand these visualizations and who are learning to read them. Learning a visualization requires mastering its…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-08-05 Xinhuan Shu , Alexis Pister , Junxiu Tang , Fanny Chevalier , Benjamin Bach

This book chapter introduces the principles and practical applications of uncertainty quantification in machine learning. It explains how to identify and distinguish between different types of uncertainty and presents methods for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-08 Hans Weytjens , Wouter Verbeke

The study of the brain's representations of uncertainty is a central topic in neuroscience. Unlike most quantities of which the neural representation is studied, uncertainty is a property of an observer's beliefs about the world, which…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2023-10-12 Edgar Y Walker , Stephan Pohl , Rachel N Denison , David L Barack , Jennifer Lee , Ned Block , Wei Ji Ma , Florent Meyniel

Information Visualization techniques are built on a context with many factors related to both vision and cognition, making it difficult to draw a clear picture of how data visually turns into comprehension. In the intent of promoting a…

Graphics · Computer Science 2016-05-16 Jose Rodrigues-Jr , Luciana Zaina , Maria Oliveira , Bruno Brandoli , Agma Traina

Research on cognitive biases and heuristics has become increasingly popular in the visualization literature in recent years. Researchers have studied the effects of biases on visualization interpretation and subsequent decision-making.…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-03-07 Ali Baigelenov , Prakash Shukla , Zixu Zhang , Paul Parsons

In a real expert system, one may have unreliable, unconfident, conflicting estimates of the value for a particular parameter. It is important for decision making that the information present in this aggregate somehow find its way into use.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-15 Henry Hamburger

Trust plays a critical role in visual data communication and decision-making, yet existing visualization research employs varied trust measures, making it challenging to compare and synthesize findings across studies. In this work, we first…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-12-15 Huichen Will Wang , Kylie Lin , Andrew Cohen , Ryan Kennedy , Zach Zwald , Carolina Nobre , Cindy Xiong Bearfield

As visualization researchers evaluate the impact of visualization design on decision-making, they often hold a one-dimensional perspective on the cognitive processes behind making a decision. Several psychological and economical researchers…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2020-10-09 Melanie Bancilhon , Alvitta Ottley

In this study, we explore in depth a few under-studied topics at the intersection of uncertainty estimation and segmentation. Prior work has shown that the quality of uncertainty estimates can be very sensitive to a range of variables. As…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Michael Smith , Frank P. Ferrie

Graphical models have demonstrated their exceptional capabilities across numerous applications. However, their performance, confidence, and trustworthiness are often limited by the inherent randomness in data generation and the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Chao Chen , Chenghua Guo , Rui Xu , Jiujiu Chen , Xiangwen Liao , Xi Zhang , Sihong Xie , Hui Xiong , Philip Yu
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