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Monetary risk measures are usually interpreted as the smallest amount of external capital that must be added to a financial position to make it acceptable. We propose a new concept: intrinsic risk measures and argue that this approach…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-28 W. Farkas , A. Smirnow

Evaluating the value of new clinical treatment rules based on patient characteristics is important but often complicated by hidden confounding factors in observational studies. Standard methods for estimating the average patient outcome if…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Johannes Hruza , Erin Gabriel , Arvid Sjölander , Samir Bhatt , Michael Sachs

Most of parameters used to describe states and dynamics of financial market depend on proportions of the appropriate variables rather than on their actual values. Therefore, projective geometry seems to be the correct language to describe…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-13 Edward W. Piotrowski , Jan Sladkowski

Estimation of individual treatment effects is commonly used as the basis for contextual decision making in fields such as healthcare, education, and economics. However, it is often sufficient for the decision maker to have estimates of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-13 Maggie Makar , Fredrik D. Johansson , John Guttag , David Sontag

Consider an agent who enters a financial market on day t = 0 with an initial capital amount x. He invests this amount on stocks and the money market, and by day t = T, has generated a wealth W . He is given a convex class of probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-10 Soumik Pal

This paper presented insights into the implementation of transactive multi-agent systems over flow networks where local resources are decentralized. Agents have local resource demand and supply, and are interconnected through a flow network…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2023-10-11 Yijun Chen , Zeinab Salehi , Elizabeth L. Ratnam , Ian R. Petersen , Guodong Shi

This paper analyzes and explicitly solves a class of long-term average impulse control problems and a related class of singular control problems. The underlying process is a general one-dimensional diffusion with appropriate boundary…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-05 K. L. Helmes , R. H. Stockbridge , C. Zhu

Contemporary sample size calculations for external validation of risk prediction models require users to specify fixed values of assumed model performance metrics alongside target precision levels (e.g., 95% CI widths). However, due to the…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-13 Mohsen Sadatsafavi , Paul Gustafson , Solmaz Setayeshgar , Laure Wynants , Richard D Riley

In extreme value theory and other related risk analysis fields, probability weighted moments (PWM) have been frequently used to estimate the parameters of classical extreme value distributions. This method-of-moment technique can be applied…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-21 Anna Ben-Hamou , Philippe Naveau , Maud Thomas

The law of large numbers extends to random sets by employing Minkowski addition. Above that, a central limit theorem is available for set-valued random variables. The existing results use abstract isometries to describe convergence of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-22 Alois Pichler

Considerations regarding clinical effectiveness and cost are essential in comparing the overall value of two treatments. There has been growing interest in methodology to integrate cost and effectiveness measures in order to inform policy…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-04 Andrew J. Spieker , Nicholas Illenberger , Jason A. Roy , Nandita Mitra

The main goal of this paper is an application of Bayesian inference in testing the relation between risk and return on the financial instruments. On the basis of the Intertemporal CAPM model we built a general sampling model suitable in…

Applications · Statistics 2008-10-06 Mateusz Pipien

An empirical analysis, suggested by optimal Merton dynamics, reveals some unexpected features of asset volumes. These features are connected to traders' belief and risk aversion. This paper proposes a trading strategy model in the optimal…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-27 Francesca Mariani , Maria Cristina Recchioni , Tai-Ho Wang , Roberto Giacalone

The problem of estimating the probability of a random process reaching a certain level is well known. In this article, two-sided estimates are established for the probability that a regenerative process reaches a high level. Two auxiliary…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-29 Kateryna Akbash , Ivan Matsak , Oleg Zakusylo

Prediction markets are long known for prediction accuracy. This study systematically explores the fundamental properties of prediction markets, addressing questions about their information aggregation process and the factors contributing to…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-10 Dian Yu , Jianjun Gao , Weiping Wu , Zizhuo Wang

We provide a formal framework accounting for a widespread idea in the theory of economic design: analytically established incompatibilities between given axioms should be qualified by the likelihood of their violation. We define the degree…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-02-20 Pierre Bardier

Flow velocity is an important characteristic of the fluidic mediums. In this paper, we introduce a molecular based flow velocity meter consisting of a molecule releasing node and a receiver that counts these molecules. We consider both flow…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-01-12 Maryam Farahnak-Ghazani , Mahtab Mirmohseni , Masoumeh Nasiri-Kenari

The estimation of asset return distributions is crucial for determining optimal trading strategies. In this paper we describe the constrained mixture model, based on a mixture of Gamma and Gaussian distributions, to provide an accurate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-03-15 Iead Rezek

Organizations use cash management models to control balances to both avoid overdrafts and obtain a profit from short-term investments. Most management models are based on control bounds which are derived from the assumption of a particular…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-17 Francisco Salas-Molina

In this paper, we study the performance of extremum estimators from the perspective of generalization ability (GA): the ability of a model to predict outcomes in new samples from the same population. By adapting the classical concentration…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-14 Ning Xu , Jian Hong , Timothy C. G. Fisher
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