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There is a dearth of robust methods to estimate the causal effects of multiple treatments when the outcome is binary. This paper uses two unique sets of simulations to propose and evaluate the use of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-22 Liangyuan Hu , Chenyang Gu , Michael Lopez , Jiayi Ji , Juan Wisnivesky

We consider the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in a semi-supervised learning setting, where a very small proportion of the entire set of observations are labeled with the true outcome but features predictive of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-27 David Cheng , Ashwin Ananthakrishnan , Tianxi Cai

We propose a new method to estimate causal effects from nonexperimental data. Each pair of sample units is first associated with a stochastic 'treatment' - differences in factors between units - and an effect - a resultant outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-08 Andre F. Ribeiro , Frank Neffke , Ricardo Hausmann

One of the major challenges in estimating conditional potential outcomes and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is the presence of hidden confounders. Since testing for hidden confounders cannot be accomplished only with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Ahmed Aloui , Juncheng Dong , Ali Hasan , Vahid Tarokh

We investigate the task of estimating the conditional average causal effect of treatment-dosage pairs from a combination of observational data and assumptions on the causal relationships in the underlying system. This has been a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-31 Alexis Bellot , Anish Dhir , Giulia Prando

As language technologies gain prominence in real-world settings, it is important to understand how changes to language affect reader perceptions. This can be formalized as the causal effect of varying a linguistic attribute (e.g.,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Victoria Lin , Louis-Philippe Morency , Eli Ben-Michael

Assessing the effects of a policy based on observational data from a different policy is a common problem across several high-stake decision-making domains, and several off-policy evaluation (OPE) techniques have been proposed. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-21 Sonali Parbhoo , Shalmali Joshi , Finale Doshi-Velez

Selecting causal inference models for estimating individualized treatment effects (ITE) from observational data presents a unique challenge since the counterfactual outcomes are never observed. The problem is challenged further in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-15 Trent Kyono , Ioana Bica , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

In observational studies, causal inference relies on several key identifying assumptions. One identifiability condition is the positivity assumption, which requires the probability of treatment be bounded away from 0 and 1. That is, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-21 Yaqian Zhu , Nandita Mitra , Jason Roy

Estimating causal effects from observational data informs us about which factors are important in an autonomous system, and enables us to take better decisions. This is important because it has applications in selecting a treatment in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-29 Plabon Shaha , Talha Islam Zadid , Ismat Rahman , Md. Mosaddek Khan

Machine learning models used in medical applications often face challenges due to the covariate shift, which occurs when there are discrepancies between the distributions of training and target data. This can lead to decreased predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Mingyang Cai , Thomas Klausch , Mark A. van de Wiel

Understanding and characterizing treatment effect variation in randomized experiments has become essential for going beyond the "black box" of the average treatment effect. Nonetheless, traditional statistical approaches often ignore or…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-31 Peng Ding , Avi Feller , Luke Miratrix

Generalizing empirical findings to new environments, settings, or populations is essential in most scientific explorations. This article treats a particular problem of generalizability, called "transportability", defined as a license to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-01-03 Elias Bareinboim , Judea Pearl

Most of the widely used estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) in causal inference rely on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap. Unconfoundedness requires that the observed covariates account for all correlations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Yang Cai , Alkis Kalavasis , Katerina Mamali , Anay Mehrotra , Manolis Zampetakis

Although complete randomization ensures covariate balance on average, the chance for observing significant differences between treatment and control covariate distributions increases with many covariates. Rerandomization discards…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-15 Xinran Li , Peng Ding , Donald B. Rubin

We consider the challenges associated with causal inference in settings where data from a randomized trial is augmented with control data from an external source to improve efficiency in estimating the average treatment effect (ATE).…

Causal inference from observational datasets often relies on measuring and adjusting for covariates. In practice, measurements of the covariates can often be noisy and/or biased, or only measurements of their proxies may be available.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Wenshuo Guo , Mingzhang Yin , Yixin Wang , Michael I. Jordan

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) face inherent limitations, such as ethical or resource constraints, which lead to a limited number of study participants. To address these limitations, recent research endeavors have sought to incorporate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-20 Peijin Wang , Hwanhee Hong , Kyungeun Jeon , Laine Elliott Thomas

Inferring causal relationships between event pairs in a temporal sequence is applicable in many domains such as healthcare, manufacturing, and transportation. Most existing work on causal inference primarily focuses on event types within…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-16 Kazi Tasnim Zinat , Yun Zhou , Xiang Lyu , Yawei Wang , Zhicheng Liu , Panpan Xu

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE). While covariate adjustment can reduce the asymptotic variances of the unbiased Horvitz-Thompson estimators for the ATE, it suffers from…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-22 Xin Lu , Lei Shi , Hanzhong Liu , Peng Ding