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Related papers: Shapley Effect Estimation using Polynomial Chaos

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Shapley values are widely recognized as a principled method for attributing importance to input features in machine learning. However, the exact computation of Shapley values scales exponentially with the number of features, severely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Majid Mohammadi , Krikamol Muandet , Ilaria Tiddi , Annette Ten Teije , Siu Lun Chau

This paper presents an efficient surrogate modeling strategy for the uncertainty quantification and Bayesian calibration of a hydrological model. In particular, a process-based dynamical urban drainage simulator that predicts the discharge…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-14 Joseph B. Nagel , Jörg Rieckermann , Bruno Sudret

We consider the effect of multiple stochastic parameters on the time-average quantities of chaotic systems. We employ the recently proposed \cite{Kantarakias_Papadakis_2023} sensitivity-enhanced generalized polynomial chaos expansion,…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2023-11-02 George Papadakis , Kyriakos D. Kantarakias

This work focuses on developing efficient post-hoc explanations for quantum AI algorithms. In classical contexts, the cooperative game theory concept of the Shapley value adapts naturally to post-hoc explanations, where it can be used to…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-04-18 Iain Burge , Michel Barbeau , Joaquin Garcia-Alfaro

In surrogate modeling, polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is popularly utilized to represent the random model responses, which are computationally expensive and usually obtained by deterministic numerical modeling approaches including finite…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-01 Z. Liu , D. Lesselier , B. Sudret , J. Wiart

This paper fills the limited statistical understanding of Shapley values as a variable importance measure from a nonparametric (or smoothing) perspective. We introduce population-level \textit{Shapley curves} to measure the true variable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-04 Ratmir Miftachov , Georg Keilbar , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

Shapley value is originally a concept in econometrics to fairly distribute both gains and costs to players in a coalition game. In the recent decades, its application has been extended to other areas such as marketing, engineering and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-19 Liuqing Yang , Yongdao Zhou , Haoda Fu , Min-Qian Liu , Wei Zheng

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) have proven efficiency in a number of fields for propagating parametric uncertainties through computational models of complex systems, namely structural and fluid mechanics, chemical reactions and…

Computation · Statistics 2017-04-13 Chu V. Mai , Bruno Sudret

In the field of surrogate modeling, polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) allows practitioners to construct inexpensive yet accurate surrogates to be used in place of the expensive forward model simulations. For black-box simulations,…

Because of the complexity of fluid flow solvers, non-intrusive uncertainty quantification techniques have been developed in aerodynamic simulations in order to compute the quantities of interest required in an optimization process, for…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-03-02 Éric Savin , Béatrice Faverjon

This paper proposes an adaptive sparse polynomial chaos expansion(PCE)-based method to quantify the impacts of uncertainties on critical clearing time (CCT) that is an important index in transient stability analysis. The proposed method can…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-10 Jingyu Liu , Xiaoting Wang , Xiaozhe Wang

Researchers in explainable artificial intelligence have developed numerous methods for helping users understand the predictions of complex supervised learning models. By contrast, explaining the $\textit{uncertainty}$ of model outputs has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-01 David S. Watson , Joshua O'Hara , Niek Tax , Richard Mudd , Ido Guy

Model predictive control is an advanced control approach for multivariable systems with constraints, which is reliant on an accurate dynamic model. Most real dynamic models are however affected by uncertainties, which can lead to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-03-10 E. Bradford , L. Imsland

Polynomial chaos expansions are used to reduce the computational cost in the Bayesian solutions of inverse problems by creating a surrogate posterior that can be evaluated inexpensively. We show, by analysis and example, that when the data…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-06-19 Fei Lu , Matthias Morzfeld , Xuemin Tu , Alexandre J. Chorin

In spite of increased attention on explainable machine learning models, explaining multi-output predictions has not yet been extensively addressed. Methods that use Shapley values to attribute feature contributions to the decision making…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-31 Célia Wafa Ayad , Thomas Bonnier , Benjamin Bosch , Jesse Read

In uncertainty quantification, evaluating sensitivity measures under specific conditions (i.e., conditional Sobol' indices) is essential for systems with parameterized responses, such as spatial fields or varying operating conditions.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-22 Shijie Zhong , Jiangfeng Fu

Generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) expansions are well established for forward uncertainty propagation in many application areas. Although the associated computational effort may be reduced in comparison to Monte Carlo techniques, for…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-07-26 Niklas Georg , Ulrich Römer

SHAP scores represent the proposed use of the well-known Shapley values in eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI). Recent work has shown that the exact computation of SHAP scores can produce unsatisfactory results. Concretely, for some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-20 Olivier Letoffe , Xuanxiang Huang , Joao Marques-Silva

This paper addresses the Bayesian calibration of dynamic models with parametric and structural uncertainties, in particular where the uncertain parameters are unknown/poorly known spatio-temporally varying subsystem models. Independent…

Computation · Statistics 2012-11-02 Piyush Tagade , Han-Lim Choi

When using machine learning techniques in decision-making processes, the interpretability of the models is important. Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) is one of the most promising interpretation methods for machine learning models.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-08 Yasunobu Nohara , Toyoshi Inoguchi , Chinatsu Nojiri , Naoki Nakashima