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A methodology for high dimensional causal inference in a time series context is introduced. It is assumed that there is a monotonic transformation of the data such that the dynamics of the transformed variables are described by a Gaussian…

Many real-life applications involve simultaneously forecasting multiple time series that are hierarchically related via aggregation or disaggregation operations. For instance, commercial organizations often want to forecast inventories…

This paper introduces a class of copula models for spatial data, based on multivariate Pareto-mixture distributions. We explore the tail properties of these models, demonstrating their ability to capture both tail dependence and asymptotic…

Classical models for multivariate or spatial extremes are mainly based upon the asymptotically justified max-stable or generalized Pareto processes. These models are suitable when asymptotic dependence is present, i.e., the joint tail…

In this article, we develop fully Bayesian, copula-based, spatial-statistical models for large, noisy, incomplete, and non-Gaussian spatial data. Our approach includes novel constructions of copulas that accommodate a spatial-random-effects…

The forecasting of irregular multivariate time series (IMTS) is crucial in key areas such as healthcare, biomechanics, climate science, and astronomy. However, achieving accurate and practical predictions is challenging due to two main…

In this article, it is described how to use statistical data analysis to obtain models directly from data. The focus is put on finding nonlinearities within a generalized additive model. These models are found by the means of backfitting…

Non-random sample selection is a commonplace amongst many empirical studies and it appears when an output variable of interest is available only for a restricted non-random sub-sample of data. We introduce an extension of the generalized…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to modelling and predicting a class of functional time series with application to energy markets, based on fully observed, noise-free functional data. Traders in such contexts conceive profitable…

An evolving weighted neuro-neo-fuzzy-ANARX model and its learning procedures are introduced in the article. This system is basically used for time series forecasting. This system may be considered as a pool of elements that process data in…

In this paper, we propose an unsupervised data-driven approach to predict real-time locational marginal prices (RTLMPs). The proposed approach is built upon a general data structure for organizing system-wide heterogeneous market data…

In statistical research there usually exists a choice between structurally simpler or more complex models. We argue that, even if a more complex, locally stationary time series model were true, then a simple, stationary time series model…

Spatiotemporal forecasting is critical for real-world applications like traffic management, yet capturing reliable interactions remains challenging under noisy and non-stationary conditions. Existing methods primarily rely on historical…

With increasingly more computation being shifted to the edge of the network, monitoring of critical infrastructures, such as intermediate processing nodes in autonomous driving, is further complicated due to the typically…

Time series models, typically trained on numerical data, are designed to forecast future values. These models often rely on weighted averaging techniques over time intervals. However, real-world time series data is seldom isolated and is…

Copula is a powerful tool to model multivariate data. We propose the modelling of intraday financial returns of multiple assets through copula. The problem originates due to the asynchronous nature of intraday financial data. We propose a…

Recent research demonstrates that linear models achieve forecasting performance competitive with complex architectures, yet methodologies for enhancing linear models remain underexplored. Motivated by the hypothesis that distinct time…

The problem of (point) forecasting $ \textit{univariate} $ time series is considered. Most approaches, ranging from traditional statistical methods to recent learning-based techniques with neural networks, directly operate on raw time…

This article presents factor copula approaches to model temporal dependency of non-Gaussian (continuous/discrete) longitudinal data. Factor copula models are canonical vine copulas which explain the underlying dependence structure of a…

We study offline change-point estimation for time series data exhibiting nonlinear serial dependence. To address this problem, we propose a copula-based Markov chain model with Weibull marginal distributions, which is suitable for modeling…