Related papers: Granger causality test for heteroskedastic and str…
Granger causality (GC), a popular statistical method for the inference of directional influences between time series measured from a complex network, is sensitive to high-order (non-pairwise) interactions which fundamentally shape the…
Granger causality has become an indispensable tool for analyzing causal relationships between time series. In this paper, we provide a detailed overview of its mathematical foundations, trace its historical development, and explore how…
Explaining underlying causes or effects about events is a challenging but valuable task. We define a novel problem of generating explanations of a time series event by (1) searching cause and effect relationships of the time series with…
Granger causality, commonly used for inferring causal structures from time series data, has been adopted in widespread applications across various fields due to its intuitive explainability and high compatibility with emerging deep neural…
A widely applied approach to causal inference from a non-experimental time series $X$, often referred to as "(linear) Granger causal analysis", is to regress present on past and interpret the regression matrix $\hat{B}$ causally. However,…
A non-Bayesian, regression-based or generalized least squares (GLS)-based approach is formally proposed to estimate a class of time-varying AR parameter models. This approach has partly been used by Ito et al. (2014, 2016a,b), and is proven…
This paper introduces a novel two-stage estimation and inference procedure for generalized impulse responses (GIRs). GIRs encompass all coefficients in a multi-horizon linear projection model of future outcomes of y on lagged values (Dufour…
We describe a new framework for causal inference and its application to return time series. In this system, causal relationships are represented as logical formulas, allowing us to test arbitrarily complex hypotheses in a computationally…
Consider a regression model with infinitely many parameters and time series errors. We are interested in choosing weights for averaging across generalized least squares (GLS) estimators obtained from a set of approximating models. However,…
In this paper, we investigate seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models that allow the number of equations (N) to be large, and to be comparable to the number of the observations in each equation (T). It is well known in the literature…
Differential Granger causality, that is understanding how Granger causal relations differ between two related time series, is of interest in many scientific applications. Modeling each time series by a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we…
To gain insight into complex systems it is a key challenge to infer nonlinear causal directional relations from observational time-series data. Specifically, estimating causal relationships between interacting components in large systems…
We consider extension of Granger causality to nonlinear bivariate time series. In this frame, if the prediction error of the first time series is reduced by including measurements from the second time series, then the second time series is…
We propose a new framework for assessing Granger causality in quantiles in unstable environments, for a fixed quantile or over a continuum of quantile levels. Our proposed test statistics are consistent against fixed alternatives, they have…
Granger causality is a fundamental technique for causal inference in time series data, commonly used in the social and biological sciences. Typical operationalizations of Granger causality make a strong assumption that every time point of…
Trivariate Granger causality analysis seeks to distinguish between "true" causality and "spurious" causality results from the topology of the system. However, this analysis is sensitive both to the choice of test criteria and the presence…
Linear regression model (LRM) based on mean square error (MSE) criterion is widely used in Granger causality analysis (GCA), which is the most commonly used method to detect the causality between a pair of time series. However, when signals…
In the post-crisis era, financial regulators and policymakers are increasingly interested in data-driven tools to measure systemic risk and to identify systemically important firms. Granger Causality (GC) based techniques to build networks…
Causal discovery in time-series is a fundamental problem in the machine learning community, enabling causal reasoning and decision-making in complex scenarios. Recently, researchers successfully discover causality by combining neural…
Granger causality is well established within the neurosciences for inference of directed functional connectivity from neurophysiological data. These data usually consist of time series which subsample a continuous-time biophysiological…