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We suggest a novel procedure for online change point detection. Our approach expands an idea of maximizing a discrepancy measure between points from pre-change and post-change distributions. This leads to flexible algorithms suitable for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-24 Nikita Puchkin , Artur Goldman , Konstantin Yakovlev , Valeriia Dzis , Uliana Vinogradova

In this paper, the problem of quickly detecting an abrupt change on a stochastic process under Bayesian framework is considered. Different from the classic Bayesian quickest change-point detection problem, this paper considers the case…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-08-24 Jun Geng , Erhan Bayraktar , Lifeng Lai

The goal of the change-point detection is to discover changes of time series distribution. One of the state of the art approaches of the change-point detection are based on direct density ratio estimation. In this work we show how existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Mikhail Hushchyn , Andrey Ustyuzhanin

This article introduces a novel Bayesian method for asynchronous change-point detection in multivariate time series. This method allows for change-points to occur earlier in some (leading) series followed, after a short delay, by…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-28 Carson McKee , Maria Kalli

We consider the testing and estimation of change-points, locations where the distribution abruptly changes, in a sequence of observations. Motivated by this problem, in this contribution we first investigate the extremes of Gaussian fields…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-09 Long Bai

We study the parametric online changepoint detection problem, where the underlying distribution of the streaming data changes from a known distribution to an alternative that is of a known parametric form but with unknown parameters. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-22 Liyan Xie , George V. Moustakides , Yao Xie

Link prediction is a key aspect of graph machine learning, with applications as diverse as disease prediction, social network recommendations, and drug discovery. It involves predicting new links that may form between network nodes. Despite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Haohui Lu , Shahadat Uddin

Change-point detection and estimation procedures have been widely developed in the literature. However, commonly used approaches in change-point analysis have mainly been focusing on detecting change-points within an entire time series…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-27 Chak Fung Choi , Chunxue Li , Chun Yip Yau , Zifeng Zhao

We study the multivariate nonparametric change point detection problem, where the data are a sequence of independent $p$-dimensional random vectors whose distributions are piecewise-constant with Lipschitz densities changing at unknown…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-26 Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Yi Yu , Daren Wang , Alessandro Rinaldo

Components of complex systems are often classified according to the way they interact with each other. In graph theory such groups are known as clusters or communities. Many different techniques have been recently proposed to detect them,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2010-04-30 Muhittin Mungan , Jose J. Ramasco

Existing online change-point detection (CPD) methods rely on fixed-dimensional Euclidean summaries, implicitly assuming that distributional changes are well captured by moment-based or feature-based representations. They can obscure…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-25 Yingyan Zeng , Yujing Huang , Xiaoyu Chen

We propose a non-parametric link prediction algorithm for a sequence of graph snapshots over time. The model predicts links based on the features of its endpoints, as well as those of the local neighborhood around the endpoints. This allows…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-03 Purnamrita Sarkar , Deepayan Chakrabarti , Michael Jordan

The Katz centrality of a node in a complex network is a measure of the node's importance as far as the flow of information across the network is concerned. For ensembles of locally tree-like and undirected random graphs, this observable is…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-10-02 Silvia Bartolucci , Francesco Caravelli , Fabio Caccioli , Pierpaolo Vivo

Traditional methods for inference in change point detection often rely on a large number of observed data points and can be inaccurate in non-asymptotic settings. With the rise of mobile health and digital phenotyping studies, where…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-11 Ian Barnett

In this paper we propose a domain adaptation algorithm designed for graph domains. Given a source graph with many labeled nodes and a target graph with few or no labeled nodes, we aim to estimate the target labels by making use of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-02 Yusuf Yigit Pilavci , Eylem Tugce Guneyi , Cemil Cengiz , Elif Vural

In this paper we propose a new approach for sequential monitoring of a parameter of a $d$-dimensional time series, which can be estimated by approximately linear functionals of the empirical distribution function. We consider a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-26 Holger Dette , Josua Gösmann

The study of networks has emerged in diverse disciplines as a means of analyzing complex relationship data. Beyond graph analysis tasks like graph query processing, link analysis, influence propagation, there has recently been some work in…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-11-15 Supriya Pandhre , Manish Gupta , Vineeth N Balasubramanian

The problem of identifying change points in high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) in an online fashion is of interest, due to new applications in biology, economics and social sciences. The offline version of the problem, where…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-18 Hossein Keshavarz , George Michailidis

Classifier predictions often rely on the assumption that new observations come from the same distribution as training data. When the underlying distribution changes, so does the optimal classification rule, and performance may degrade. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-01 Ciaran Evans , Max G'Sell

We address the sequential change-point detection problem for the Gaussian model where baseline distribution is Gaussian with variance \sigma^2 and mean \mu such that \sigma^2=a\mu, where a>0 is a known constant; the change is in \mu from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-06 Aleksey S. Polunchenko , Alexander G. Tartakovsky , Nitis Mukhopadhyay
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