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Risk evaluation is a forecast, and its validity must be backtested. Probability distribution forecasts are used in this work and allow for more powerful validations compared to point forecasts. Our aim is to use bivariate copulas in order…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-21 Boris David , Gilles Zumbach

How can one perform Bayesian inference on stochastic simulators with intractable likelihoods? A recent approach is to learn the posterior from adaptively proposed simulations using neural network-based conditional density estimators.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-21 David S. Greenberg , Marcel Nonnenmacher , Jakob H. Macke

For testing two random vectors for independence, we consider testing whether the distance of one vector from a center point is independent from the distance of the other vector from a center point by a univariate test. In this paper we…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-11 Ruth Heller , Yair Heller

We consider the problem of testing whether pairs of univariate random variables are associated. Few tests of independence exist that are consistent against all dependent alternatives and are distribution free. We propose novel tests that…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-09 Ruth Heller , Yair Heller , Shachar Kaufman , Malka Gorfine

Two-sample testing is a fundamental problem in statistics, and many famous two-sample tests are designed to be fully non-parametric. These existing methods perform well with location and scale shifts but are less robust when faced with more…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-12 Benjamin Brown , Kai Zhang

For a broad class of input-output maps, arguments based on the coding theorem from algorithmic information theory (AIT) predict that simple (low Kolmogorov complexity) outputs are exponentially more likely to occur upon uniform random…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-10-03 Kamaludin Dingle , Guillermo Valle Pérez , Ard A. Louis

In this paper, we investigate local permutation tests for testing conditional independence between two random vectors $X$ and $Y$ given $Z$. The local permutation test determines the significance of a test statistic by locally shuffling…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-07 Ilmun Kim , Matey Neykov , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Larry Wasserman

We compute the full probability distribution of the spectral form factor in the self-dual kicked Ising model by providing an exact lower bound for each moment and verifying numerically that the latter is saturated. We show that at large…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2021-01-04 Ana Flack , Bruno Bertini , Tomaz Prosen

We propose the use of the probability integral transform (PIT) for model validation in point process models. The simple PIT diagnostics assess the calibration of the model and can detect inconsistencies in both the intensity and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-05-16 Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir

In this paper, we obtain general representations for the joint distributions and copulas of arbitrary dependent random variables absolutely continuous with respect to the product of given one-dimensional marginal distributions. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Victor H. de la Peña , Rustam Ibragimov , Shaturgun Sharakhmetov

In this paper, the joint distribution of the sum and maximum of independent, not necessarily identically distributed, nonnegative random variables is studied for two cases: i) continuous and ii) discrete random variables. First, a recursive…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-01 Christos N. Efrem

The gold standard for identifying causal relationships is a randomized controlled experiment. In many applications in the social sciences and medicine, the researcher does not control the assignment mechanism and instead may rely upon…

Applications · Statistics 2016-11-22 Johann Gagnon-Bartsch , Yotam Shem-Tov

Identifying dependency in multivariate data is a common inference task that arises in numerous applications. However, existing nonparametric independence tests typically require computation that scales at least quadratically with the sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-08 Shai Gorsky , Li Ma

In this paper we study different concepts of independence for convex sets of probabilities. There will be two basic ideas for independence. The first is irrelevance. Two variables are independent when a change on the knowledge about one…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Luis M. de Campos , Serafin Moral

A new computationally efficient dependence measure, and an adaptive statistical test of independence, are proposed. The dependence measure is the difference between analytic embeddings of the joint distribution and the product of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-18 Wittawat Jitkrittum , Zoltan Szabo , Arthur Gretton

Permutation tests date back nearly a century to Fisher's randomized experiments, and remain an immensely popular statistical tool, used for testing hypotheses of independence between variables and other common inferential questions. Much of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-05 Aaditya Ramdas , Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Ryan J. Tibshirani

This paper develops a novel unified framework for testing mutual independence among random objects residing in possibly different metric spaces. The framework generalizes existing methodologies and introduces new measures of mutual…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-22 Yaqing Chen , Paromita Dubey

We propose a family of tests of the validity of the assumptions underlying independent component analysis methods. The tests are formulated as L2-type procedures based on characteristic functions and involve weights; a proper choice of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-12 Marc Hallin , Simos G. Meintanis , Klaus Nordhausen

We propose an estimator of the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion obtained from an appropriate modification of the usual estimator. We then get asymptotic normality of this estimator both under independence hypothesis and under the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-24 Terence Kevin Manfoumbi Djonguet , Guy Martial Nkiet , Alban Mbina Mbina

The Contextuality-by-Default theory is illustrated on contextuality analysis of the idealized double-slit experiment. The experiment is described by a system of contextually labeled binary random variables each of which answers the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-01-24 Ehtibar N. Dzhafarov , Janne V. Kujala