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Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-05-26 Mark S. Williamson , Chad W. Thackeray , Peter M. Cox , Alex Hall , Chris Huntingford , Femke J. M. M. Nijsse

The climate is a non-equilibrium system undergoing the continuous action of forcing and dissipation. Under the effect of a spatially inhomogeneous absorption of solar energy, all the climate components dynamically respond until an…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-06-01 Charline Ragon , Valerio Lembo , Valerio Lucarini , Christian Vérard , Jérôme Kasparian , Maura Brunetti

The modeling of spatio-temporal trends in temperature extremes can help better understand the structure and frequency of heatwaves in a changing climate. Here, we study annual temperature maxima over Southern Europe using a century-spanning…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-08 Peng Zhong , Raphaël Huser , Thomas Opitz

We developed a coupled social-climate network model to understand the interaction between climate change opinion spread and the climate system and determine the role of this interaction in shaping collective actions and global temperature…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-03-07 Athira Satheesh Kumar , Krešimir Josić , Chris T Bauch , Madhur Anand

Climate change is the long-term shift in global weather patterns, largely caused by anthropogenic activity of greenhouse gas emissions. Global climate temperatures have unmistakably risen and naturally occurring climate variability alone…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-01-26 Junze Zhang , Kerry Zhang , Mary Zhang , Jonathan H. Jiang , Philip E. Rosen , Kristen A. Fahy

Statistical methods are required to evaluate and quantify the uncertainty in environmental processes, such as land and sea surface temperature, in a changing climate. Typically, annual harmonics are used to characterize the variation in the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-17 Joshua S. North , Erin M. Schliep , Christopher K. Wikle

Palaeoclimate archives contain information on climate variability, trends and mechanisms. Models are developed to explain observations and predict the response of the climate system to perturbations, in particular perturbations associated…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2012-09-13 Michel Crucifix

Changepoint methods have multiple uses in climatology, including stationary checks and record homogenization. There are still many open problems in the area, especially in the multiple changepoint setting, and statisticians are needed to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-09 Robert B. Lund , Xueheng Shi

Many regions across the globe broke their surface temperature records in recent years, further sparking concerns about the impending arrival of "tipping points" later in the 21st century. This study analyzes observed global surface…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-02-13 Nicole Ma , Jonathan H. Jiang , Kennard Hou , Yun Lin , Trung Vu , Philip E. Rosen , Yu Gu , Kristen A. Fahy

Both global, intermediate and local scales of Climate Change have been studied extensively, but a unified diagnostic framework for examining all spatial scales concurrently has remained elusive. Here we present a new tool-set using…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-05-19 Albert Sneppen

Multistability is a phenomenon prevalent in many natural systems. In climate, for example, it allows the possibility of irreversible consequences on planetary scale as a result of climate change. Indeed, a climate ``tipping element'' is a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 George Datseris , Johannes Lohmann , Oisín Hamilton , Jacob Haqq-Misra

Determining changes in global temperature and precipitation that may indicate climate change is complicated by annual variations. One approach for finding potential climate change indicators is to train a model that predicts the year from…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-09 Charles Anderson , Jason Stock

Many climate subsystems are thought to be susceptible to tipping - and some might be close to a tipping point. The general belief and intuition, based on simple conceptual models of tipping elements, is that tipping leads to reorganization…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2021-12-01 Robbin Bastiaansen , Henk A. Dijkstra , Anna S. von der Heydt

Fighting against climate change is a global challenge shared by nations with heterogeneous economical resources and individuals with diverse propensity for cooperation. However, we lack a clear understanding of the role of key factors such…

Future climate change impacts depend on temperatures not only through changes in their means but also through changes in their variability. General circulation models (GCMs) predict changes in both means and variability; however, GCM output…

Applications · Statistics 2015-11-03 Andrew Poppick , David J. McInerney , Elisabeth J. Moyer , Michael L. Stein

Climate change is one of the most significant global challenges, yet misconceptions persist regarding its causes and impact. This report addresses common myths surrounding climate change and presents scientific evidence to clarify its…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-10-17 Sihua Lu

Detailed investigations of time series features across climates, continents and variable types can progress our understanding and modelling ability of the Earth's hydroclimate and its dynamics. They can also improve our comprehension of the…

Applications · Statistics 2024-08-23 Georgia Papacharalampous , Hristos Tyralis , Yannis Markonis , Petr Maca , Martin Hanel

Climate models have become an important tool in the study of climate and climate change, and ensemble experiments consisting of multiple climate-model runs are used in studying and quantifying the uncertainty in climate-model output.…

Applications · Statistics 2011-04-15 Stephan R. Sain , Reinhard Furrer , Noel Cressie

We analyze the occurrence and the values of record-breaking temperatures in daily and monthly temperature observations. Our aim is to better understand and quantify the statistics of temperature records in the context of global warming.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2013-03-20 Gregor Wergen , Andreas Hense , Joachim Krug

This paper shows an analysis of the gridded European precipitation data. We combine simple linear regression with data mining tools like clustering, and evaluate the strength of the results by the modern bootstrap methods. We have used the…

Applications · Statistics 2018-11-01 Csilla Hajas , András Zempléni