Related papers: Divergence vs. Decision P-values: A Distinction Wo…
In this paper, we study a bi-criterion framework for assessing scoring functions in the context of binary classification. The positive and negative predictive values (ppv and npv, respectively) are conditional probabilities of the true…
This article explains, and discusses the merits of, three approaches for analyzing the certainty with which statistical results can be extrapolated beyond the data gathered. Sometimes it may be possible to use more than one of these…
The traditional measurement theory interprets the variance as the dispersion of a measured value, which is actually contrary to a general mathematical concept that the variance of a constant is 0. This paper will fully demonstrate that the…
When data do not conform to the hypothesis of a known sampling-variance, the fitting of a constant to the set of measured values is a long debated problem. Given the data, the fitting would require to find which measurand value is most…
P-value functions are modern statistical tools that unify effect estimation and hypothesis testing and can provide alternative point and interval estimates compared to standard meta-analysis methods, using any of the many $p$-value…
Calibration is a classical notion from the forecasting literature which aims to address the question: how should predicted probabilities be interpreted? In a world where we only get to observe (discrete) outcomes, how should we evaluate a…
We report an inconsistency found in probability theory (also referred to as measure-theoretic probability). For probability measures induced by real-valued random variables, we deduce an "equality" such that one side of the "equality" is a…
Researchers increasingly use meta-analysis to synthesize the results of several studies in order to estimate a common effect. When the outcome variable is continuous, standard meta-analytic approaches assume that the primary studies report…
A multitude of classifiers can be trained on the same data to achieve similar performances during test time, while having learned significantly different classification patterns. This phenomenon, which we call prediction discrepancies, is…
In this study, we introduce a new approach to statistical decision theory. Without using a loss function, we select good decision rules to choice between two hypotheses. We call them "experts". They are globally unbiased but also…
Many multiple testing procedures make use of the p-values from the individual pairs of hypothesis tests, and are valid if the p-value statistics are independent and uniformly distributed under the null hypotheses. However, it has recently…
A/B testing is ubiquitous within the machine learning and data science operations of internet companies. Generically, the idea is to perform a statistical test of the hypothesis that a new feature is better than the existing platform---for…
A common practice in evidence-based decision-making uses estimates of conditional probabilities P(y|x) obtained from research studies to predict outcomes y on the basis of observed covariates x. Given this information, decisions are then…
We introduce a method for calculating \(p\)-values to test causal hypotheses in qualitative research \emph{a la} process tracing. As in an experiment, our \(p\)-value tells us how often one would make the same or more compelling…
We examine the role of trustworthiness and trust in statistical inference, arguing that it is the extent of trustworthiness in inferential statistical tools which enables trust in the conclusions. Certain tools, such as the p-value and…
The cell biology literature is littered with erroneously tiny P values, often the result of evaluating individual cells as independent samples. Because readers use P values and error bars to infer whether a reported difference would likely…
Convergent thought is defined and measured in terms of the ability to perform on tasks where there is a single correct solution, and divergent thought is defined and measured in terms of the ability to generate multiple different solutions.…
A criterion is proposed for testing hypothesis about the nature of the error variance in the dependent variable in linear model, which separates correctly and incorrectly specified models. In the former only measurement errors determine the…
Software packages usually report the results of statistical tests using p-values. Users often interpret these by comparing them to standard thresholds, e.g. 0.1%, 1% and 5%, which is sometimes reinforced by a star rating (***, **, *). We…
Shapley value has recently become a popular way to explain the predictions of complex and simple machine learning models. This paper is discusses the factors that influence Shapley value. In particular, we explore the relationship between…