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Conformal Prediction (CP) serves as a robust framework that quantifies uncertainty in predictions made by Machine Learning (ML) models. Unlike traditional point predictors, CP generates statistically valid prediction regions, also known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-29 A. A. Balinsky , A. D. Balinsky

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a comprehensive framework to produce statistically rigorous uncertainty sets for black-box machine learning models. To further improve the efficiency of CP, conformal correction is proposed to fine-tune or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-03 Senrong Xu , Tianyu Wang , Zenan Li , Yuan Yao , Taolue Chen , Feng Xu , Xiaoxing Ma

Conformal risk control (CRC) provides distribution-free guarantees for controlling the expected loss at a user-specified level. Existing theory typically assumes that the loss decreases monotonically with a tuning parameter that governs the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-21 Tareq Aldirawi , Yun Li , Wenge Guo

When used in complex engineered systems, such as communication networks, artificial intelligence (AI) models should be not only as accurate as possible, but also well calibrated. A well-calibrated AI model is one that can reliably quantify…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-16 Kfir M. Cohen , Sangwoo Park , Osvaldo Simeone , Shlomo Shamai

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

This paper focuses on the problem of detecting and reacting to changes in the distribution of a sensorimotor controller's observables. The key idea is the design of switching policies that can take conformal quantiles as input, which we…

Conformal prediction is a powerful framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification. The standard approach to conformal prediction relies on comparing the ranks of prediction scores: under exchangeability, the rank of a future…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-07 Etienne Gauthier , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

Conformal prediction equips machine learning models with a reasonable notion of uncertainty quantification without making strong distributional assumptions. It wraps around any prediction model and converts point predictions into set…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-21 Matteo Gasparin , Aaditya Ramdas

Standard conformal prediction methods provide a marginal coverage guarantee, which means that for a random test point, the conformal prediction set contains the true label with a user-specified probability. In many classification problems,…

Conformal Prediction is a framework that produces prediction intervals based on the output from a machine learning algorithm. In this paper we explore the case when training data is made up of multiple parts available in different sources…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-16 Ola Spjuth , Robin Carrión Brännström , Lars Carlsson , Niharika Gauraha

Conformal prediction has been a very popular method of distribution-free predictive inference in recent years in machine learning and statistics. Its popularity stems from the fact that it works as a wrapper around any prediction algorithm…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-07 Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

In regression problems where there is no known true underlying model, conformal prediction methods enable prediction intervals to be constructed without any assumptions on the distribution of the underlying data, except that the training…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-31 Wenyu Chen , Kelli-Jean Chun , Rina Foygel Barber

Conformal prediction is a statistical framework that generates prediction sets containing ground-truth labels with a desired coverage guarantee. The predicted probabilities produced by machine learning models are generally miscalibrated,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-07 Jianguo Huang , Huajun Xi , Linjun Zhang , Huaxiu Yao , Yue Qiu , Hongxin Wei

Conformal prediction is a popular framework of uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets with coverage guarantees. To uphold the exchangeability assumption, many conformal prediction methods necessitate an additional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Hao Zeng , Kangdao Liu , Bingyi Jing , Hongxin Wei

Matrix completion aims to estimate missing entries in a data matrix, using the assumption of a low-complexity structure (e.g., low rank) so that imputation is possible. While many effective estimation algorithms exist in the literature,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-24 Yu Gui , Rina Foygel Barber , Cong Ma

Continual Learning (CL) focuses on maximizing the predictive performance of a model across a non-stationary stream of data. Unfortunately, CL models tend to forget previous knowledge, thus often underperforming when compared with an offline…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Lanpei Li , Elia Piccoli , Andrea Cossu , Davide Bacciu , Vincenzo Lomonaco

While counterfactual fairness of point predictors is well studied, its extension to prediction sets--central to fair decision-making under uncertainty--remains underexplored. On the other hand, conformal prediction (CP) provides efficient,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Ozgur Guldogan , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Li , Michael Berger

Conformal prediction (CP) is a wrapper around traditional machine learning models, giving coverage guarantees under the sole assumption of exchangeability; in classification problems, for a chosen significance level $\varepsilon$, CP…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-23 Javier Abad , Umang Bhatt , Adrian Weller , Giovanni Cherubin

In supervised learning, including regression and classification, conformal methods provide prediction sets for the outcome/label with finite sample coverage for any machine learning predictor. We consider here the case where such prediction…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Ulysse Gazin , Ruth Heller , Ariane Marandon , Etienne Roquain

Conformal predictors provide set or functional predictions that are valid under the assumption of randomness, i.e., under the assumption of independent and identically distributed data. The question asked in this paper is whether there are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Vladimir Vovk