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We introduce NeuralSurv, the first deep survival model to incorporate Bayesian uncertainty quantification. Our non-parametric, architecture-agnostic framework captures time-varying covariate-risk relationships in continuous time via a novel…
In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…
We propose an efficient solution to the state estimation problem in multi-scan multi-sensor multiple extended target sensing scenarios. We first model the measurement process by a doubly inhomogeneous-generalized shot noise Cox process and…
Even though Bayesian neural networks offer a promising framework for modeling uncertainty, active learning and incorporating prior physical knowledge, few applications of them can be found in the context of interatomic force modeling. One…
In this paper, we present a method for computing the marginal likelihood, also known as the model likelihood or Bayesian evidence, from Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), or other sampled posterior distributions. In order to do this, one…
Achieving robust uncertainty quantification for deep neural networks represents an important requirement in many real-world applications of deep learning such as medical imaging where it is necessary to assess the reliability of a neural…
Deep neural networks (NNs) are known for their high-prediction performances. However, NNs are prone to yield unreliable predictions when encountering completely new situations without indicating their uncertainty. Bayesian variants of NNs…
In various industrial contexts, estimating the distribution of unobserved random vectors Xi from some noisy indirect observations H(Xi) + Ui is required. If the relation between Xi and the quantity H(Xi), measured with the error Ui, is…
Bayesian methods are critical for quantifying the behaviors of systems. They capture our uncertainty about a system's behavior using probability distributions and update this understanding as new information becomes available. Probabilistic…
Modern industrial systems are often subject to multiple failure modes, and their conditions are monitored by multiple sensors, generating multiple time-series signals. Additionally, time-to-failure data are commonly available. Accurately…
This paper advocates proximal Markov Chain Monte Carlo (ProxMCMC) as a flexible and general Bayesian inference framework for constrained or regularized estimation. Originally introduced in the Bayesian imaging literature, ProxMCMC employs…
Missing values in covariates due to censoring by signal interference or lack of sensitivity in the measuring devices are common in industrial problems. We propose a full Bayesian solution to the prediction problem with an efficient Markov…
We introduce a Bayesian (deep) model-based reinforcement learning method (RoMBRL) that can capture model uncertainty to achieve sample-efficient policy optimisation. We propose to formulate the model-based policy optimisation problem as a…
Bayesian calibration of black-box computer models offers an established framework to obtain a posterior distribution over model parameters. Traditional Bayesian calibration involves the emulation of the computer model and an additive model…
The maximum ${\log}_q$ likelihood estimation method is a generalization of the known maximum $\log$ likelihood method to overcome the problem for modeling non-identical observations (inliers and outliers). The parameter $q$ is a tuning…
Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large…
Bayesian regression remains a simple but effective tool based on Bayesian inference techniques. For large-scale applications, with complicated posterior distributions, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are applied. To improve the well-known…
Increasingly complex datasets pose a number of challenges for Bayesian inference. Conventional posterior sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo can be too computationally intensive, is serial in nature and mixes poorly between posterior…
In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…
We present a Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for detecting hidden variables in a continuous time Bayesian network (CTBN), which uses reversible jumps in the sense defined by (Green 1995). In common with several…