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Extreme value theory has constructed asymptotic properties of the sample maximum. This study concerns probability distribution estimation of the sample maximum. The traditional approach is parametric fitting to the limiting distribution --…
Extreme value theory offers a statistical framework for quantifying the risk of rare events, with the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution providing the canonical limit model for univariate threshold exceedances. In many applications,…
Classical methods for quantile regression fail in cases where the quantile of interest is extreme and only few or no training data points exceed it. Asymptotic results from extreme value theory can be used to extrapolate beyond the range of…
This work has been motivated by the challenge of the 2017 conference on Extreme-Value Analysis (EVA2017), with the goal of predicting daily precipitation quantiles at the $99.8\%$ level for each month at observed and unobserved locations.…
Ultra-reliable low-latency communications (URLLC) require innovative approaches to modeling channel and interference dynamics, extending beyond traditional average estimates to encompass entire statistical distributions, including rare and…
Extreme geophysical events are of crucial relevance to our daily life: they threaten human lives and cause property damage. To assess the risk and reduce losses, we need to model and probabilistically predict these events. Parametrizations…
Trajectory optimization and model predictive control are essential techniques underpinning advanced robotic applications, ranging from autonomous driving to full-body humanoid control. State-of-the-art algorithms have focused on data-driven…
We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's $t$ distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we…
Conformal prediction is a popular method to construct prediction intervals with marginal coverage guarantees from black-box machine learning models. In applications with potentially high-impact events, such as flooding or financial crises,…
Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) provide a powerful framework for modeling dynamic systems arising in a wide range of scientific domains. However, most existing ODE methods focus on a single system, and do not adequately address the…
In this paper, we address the problem of providing insurance protection against heavy-tailed losses, for which the expected loss may not even be finite. The product we study is based on a combination of traditional insurance up to a given…
Recently some papers, such as Aban, Meerschaert and Panorska (2006), Nuyts (2010) and Clark (2013), have drawn attention to possible truncation in Pareto tail modelling. Sometimes natural upper bounds exist that truncate the probability…
Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimation at high confidence levels is inherently a rare-event problem and is particularly sensitive to tail behavior and model misspecification. This paper studies the performance of two simulation-based VaR estimation…
The purpose of this paper is to discuss empirical risk minimization when the losses are not necessarily bounded and may have a distribution with heavy tails. In such situations, usual empirical averages may fail to provide reliable…
nsEVDx is an open-source Python package for fitting stationary and nonstationary Extreme Value Distributions (EVDs) to extreme value data. It can be used to model extreme events in fields like hydrology, climate science, finance, and…
A notoriously difficult challenge in extreme value theory is the choice of the number $k\ll n$, where $n$ is the total sample size, of extreme data points to consider for inference of tail quantities. Existing theoretical guarantees for…
By introducing a weight function into the density power divergence, we develop a new class of robust and smooth estimators for the tail index of Pareto-type distributions, offering improved efficiency in the presence of outliers. These…
In a wide variety of sequential decision making problems, it can be important to estimate the impact of rare events in order to minimize risk exposure. A popular risk measure is the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), which is commonly…
Accurate prediction of traffic crash risks for individual vehicles is essential for enhancing vehicle safety. While significant attention has been given to traffic crash risk prediction, existing studies face two main challenges: First, due…
Distribution forecast can quantify forecast uncertainty and provide various forecast scenarios with their corresponding estimated probabilities. Accurate distribution forecast is crucial for planning - for example when making production…