Related papers: State and parameter learning with PaRIS particle G…

This paper presents a novel algorithm, the particle-based, rapid incremental smoother (PaRIS), for efficient online approximation of smoothed expectations of additive state functionals in general hidden Markov models. The algorithm, which…

The particle-based, rapid incremental smoother (PARIS) is a sequential Monte Carlo technique allowing for efficient online approximation of expectations of additive functionals under Feynman--Kac path distributions. Under weak assumptions,…

We consider online computation of expectations of additive state functionals under general path probability measures proportional to products of unnormalised transition densities. These transition densities are assumed to be intractable but…

Estimating online the parameters of general state-space hidden Markov models is a topic of importance in many scientific and engineering disciplines. In this paper we present an online parameter estimation algorithm obtained by casting our…

Estimating the parameters of general state-space models is a topic of importance for many scientific and engineering disciplines. In this paper we present an online parameter estimation algorithm obtained by casting our recently proposed…

We present a novel algorithm, an adaptive-lag smoother, approximating efficiently, in an online fashion, sequences of expectations under the marginal smoothing distributions in general state-space models. The algorithm evolves recursively a…

We consider Particle Gibbs (PG) as a tool for Bayesian analysis of non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. PG is a Monte Carlo (MC) approximation of the standard Gibbs procedure which uses sequential MC (SMC) importance sampling inside…

Exact parameter and trajectory inference in state-space models is typically achieved by one of two methods: particle marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) or particle Gibbs (PGibbs). PMMH is a pseudo-marginal algorithm which jointly proposes…

Probabilistic modeling provides the capability to represent and manipulate uncertainty in data, models, predictions and decisions. We are concerned with the problem of learning probabilistic models of dynamical systems from measured data.…

Probabilistic (or Bayesian) modeling and learning offers interesting possibilities for systematic representation of uncertainty using probability theory. However, probabilistic learning often leads to computationally challenging problems.…

The particle Gibbs sampler is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample from the full posterior distribution of a state-space model. It does so by executing Gibbs sampling steps on an extended target distribution defined on the…

Particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) allows for Bayesian parameter inference in nonlinear state space models by combining Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and particle filtering. The latter is used to estimate the intractable likelihood. In…

Bayesian inference in state-space models is challenging due to high-dimensional state trajectories. A viable approach is particle Markov chain Monte Carlo, combining MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo to form "exact approximations" to…

This thesis focuses on the discovery of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) from noisy and discrete time series. A major challenge is selecting the simplest possible correct model…

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are used to carry out inference in non-linear and non-Gaussian state space models, where the posterior density of the states is approximated using particles. Current approaches usually perform…

State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…

P-splines provide a flexible setting for modeling nonlinear model components based on a discretized penalty structure with a relatively simple computational backbone. Under a Bayesian inferential framework based on Markov chain Monte Carlo,…

Particle Marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) is a general approach to Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable, but can be estimated unbiasedly. Our article develops an efficient PMMH method that scales up better to higher…

High-dimensional state trajectories of state-space models pose challenges for Bayesian inference. Particle Gibbs (PG) methods have been widely used to sample from the posterior of a state space model. Basically, particle Gibbs is a Particle…

Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models are ubiquitous in statistics, econometrics, information engineering and signal processing. Particle methods, also known as Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, provide reliable numerical…