Related papers: Explicitly Solvable Continuous-time Inference for …
Isolating slower dynamics from fast fluctuations has proven remarkably powerful, but how do we proceed from partial observations of dynamical systems for which we lack underlying equations? Here, we construct maximally-predictive states by…
Stochastic processes find applications in modelling systems in a variety of disciplines. A large number of stochastic models considered are Markovian in nature. It is often observed that higher order Markov processes can model the data…
We consider the filtering of continuous-time finite-state hidden Markov models, where the rate and observation matrices depend on unknown time-dependent parameters, for which no prior or stochastic model is available. We quantify and…
We consider a general method for the approximation of the distribution of a process conditioned to not hit a given set. Existing methods are based on particle system that are failable, in the sense that, in many situations , they are not…
In this paper we consider a reduced-form intensity-based credit risk model with a hidden Markov state process. A filtering method is proposed for extracting the underlying state given the observation processes. The method may be applied to…
Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm for hidden Markov models, in a…
The paper suggests a generalization of the Sign-Perturbed Sums (SPS) finite sample system identification method for the identification of closed-loop observable stochastic linear systems in state-space form. The solution builds on the…
Probabilistic model checking for systems with large or unbounded state space is a challenging computational problem in formal modelling and its applications. Numerical algorithms require an explicit representation of the state space, while…
This paper deals with the unconstrained and constrained cases for continuous-time Markov decision processes under the finite-horizon expected total cost criterion. The state space is denumerable and the transition and cost rates are allowed…
Factorial hidden Markov models (FHMMs) are powerful tools of modeling sequential data. Learning FHMMs yields a challenging simultaneous model selection issue, i.e., selecting the number of multiple Markov chains and the dimensionality of…
The partially observable hidden Markov model is an extension of the hidden Markov Model in which the hidden state is conditioned on an independent Markov chain. This structure is motivated by the presence of discrete metadata, such as an…
Intelligent agents can cope with sensory-rich environments by learning task-agnostic state abstractions. In this paper, we propose an algorithm to approximate causal states, which are the coarsest partition of the joint history of actions…
We investigate partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with cost functions regularized by entropy terms describing state, observation, and control uncertainty. Standard POMDP techniques are shown to offer bounded-error…
We introduce the minimal maximally predictive models ({\epsilon}-machines) of processes generated by certain hidden semi-Markov models. Their causal states are either hybrid discrete-continuous or continuous random variables and…
This work aims at providing a new model for time series classification based on learning from just one example. We assume that time series can be well characterized as a parametric random process, a sort of Hidden semi-Markov Model…
Opacity is a generic security property, that has been defined on (non probabilistic) transition systems and later on Markov chains with labels. For a secret predicate, given as a subset of runs, and a function describing the view of an…
We provide a new algorithm for solving Risk Sensitive Partially Observable Markov Decisions Processes, when the risk is modeled by a utility function, and both the state space and the space of observations is finite. This algorithm is based…
We propose deterministic timed automata (DTA) as a model-independent language for specifying performance and dependability measures over continuous-time stochastic processes. Technically, these measures are defined as limit frequencies of…
In many engineering systems, proper predictive maintenance and operational control are essential to increase efficiency and reliability while reducing maintenance costs. However, one of the major challenges is that many sensors are used for…
Continuous-time multistate models are widely used for analyzing interval-censored data on disease progression over time. Sometimes, diseases manifest differently and what appears to be a coherent collection of symptoms is the expression of…