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The reaction-diffusion processes in a growing domain involves a dilution term that modifies the properties of the homogeneous state that, in contrast to a fixed domain, depends on time. We study how the dilution term changes the steady…
This paper offers a new approach to modeling and forecasting of nonstationary time series with applications to volatility modeling for financial data. The approach is based on the assumption of local homogeneity: for every time point, there…
The local Hurst exponent, a measure employed to detect the presence of dependence in a time series, may also be used to investigate the source of intraday variation observed in the returns in foreign exchange markets. Given that changes in…
Temporal difference (TD) learning is a foundational algorithm in reinforcement learning (RL). For nearly forty years, TD learning has served as a workhorse for applied RL as well as a building block for more complex and specialized…
Real-world time series exhibit temporally structured uncertainty: volatility clusters in turbulent regimes, dissipates in stable periods, and shifts abruptly around structural breaks. Yet many probabilistic forecasting methods estimate…
Ethereum is one of the most popular blockchain systems that supports more than half a million transactions every day and fosters miscellaneous decentralized applications with its Turing-complete smart contract machine. Whereas it remains…
We introduce a new class of continuous-time models of the stochastic volatility of asset prices. The models can simultaneously incorporate roughness and slowly decaying autocorrelations, including proper long memory, which are two stylized…
We consider $N$ counters taking integer values which are subject to the following dynamics. At every time, a pair of distinct counters is chosen uniformly at random and their states are updated according to the following rule. If the states…
I introduce a high-dimensional Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) framework designed to estimate the effects of conventional monetary policy shocks. The model captures structural shocks as latent factors, enabling computationally…
We report on a dramatic improvement of the performance of the classical time-delayed autosynchronization method (TDAS) to control unstable steady states, by applying a time-varying delay in the TDAS control scheme in a form of a…
Turbidity is commonly monitored as an important water quality index. Human activities, such as dredging and dumping operations, can disrupt turbidity levels and should be monitored and analyzed for possible effects. In this paper, we model…
Stability perserving is an important topic in approximation of systems, e.g.\ model reduction. If the original system is stable, we often want the approximation to be stable. But even if an algorithm preserves stability the resulting system…
This paper examines factors that influence prices of most common five cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dash, Litecoin, and Monero over 2010-2018 using weekly data. The study employs ARDL technique and documents several findings.…
Accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasts are critical for power system operation and market participation, yet growing renewable penetration and recent crises have caused unprecedented volatility that challenges standard models. This…
The ever increasing complexity of real-time control systems results in significant deviations in the timing of sensing and actuation, which may lead to degraded performance or even instability. In this paper we present a method to analyze…
We investigate the stability of the equilibrium-induced optimal value in one-dimensional diffusion setting for a time-inconsistent stopping problem under non-exponential discounting. We show that the optimal value is semi-continuous with…
Cryptocurrencies return cross-predictability and technological similarity yield information on risk propagation and market segmentation. To investigate these effects, we build a time-varying network for cryptocurrencies, based on the…
Cryptocurrencies return cross-predictability and technological similarity yield information on risk propagation and market segmentation. To investigate these effects, we build a time-varying network for cryptocurrencies, based on the…
This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…
We investigate pricing-hedging duality for American options in discrete time financial models where some assets are traded dynamically and others, e.g. a family of European options, only statically. In the first part of the paper we…