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Related papers: Nowcasting Stock Implied Volatility with Twitter

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Being able to predict stock prices might be the unspoken wish of stock investors. Although stock prices are complicated to predict, there are many theories about what affects their movements, including interest rates, news and social media.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-05 Roderick Karlemstrand , Ebba Leckström

This paper investigates the structural dynamics of stock market volatility through the Financial Chaos Index, a tensor- and eigenvalue-based measure designed to capture realized volatility via mutual fluctuations among asset prices.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-29 Masoud Ataei

Volatility prediction--an essential concept in financial markets--has recently been addressed using sentiment analysis methods. We investigate the sentiment of annual disclosures of companies in stock markets to forecast volatility. We…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2018-04-05 Navid Rekabsaz , Mihai Lupu , Artem Baklanov , Allan Hanbury , Alexander Duer , Linda Anderson

We develop a new stock market index that captures the chaos existing in the market by measuring the mutual changes of asset prices. This new index relies on a tensor-based embedding of the stock market information, which in turn frees it…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-06-09 Masoud Ataei , Shengyuan Chen , Zijiang Yang , M. Reza Peyghami

We revisit the problem of predicting directional movements of stock prices based on news articles: here our algorithm uses daily articles from The Wall Street Journal to predict the closing stock prices on the same day. We propose a unified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-07-03 Felix Ming Fai Wong , Zhenming Liu , Mung Chiang

Stock price movements are influenced by many factors, and alongside historical price data, tex-tual information is a key source. Public news and social media offer valuable insights into market sentiment and emerging events. These sources…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Wenyan Xu , Dawei Xiang , Rundong Wang , Yonghong Hu , Liang Zhang , Jiayu Chen , Zhonghua Lu

Stock market volatility forecasting is a task relevant to assessing market risk. We investigate the interaction between news and prices for the one-day-ahead volatility prediction using state-of-the-art deep learning approaches. The…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-12-31 Marcelo Sardelich , Suresh Manandhar

An appropriate calibration and forecasting of volatility and market risk are some of the main challenges faced by companies that have to manage the uncertainty inherent to their investments or funding operations such as banks, pension funds…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-08-19 E. Ramos-Pérez , P. J. Alonso-González , J. J. Núñez-Velázquez

With the advent of fast-paced information dissemination and retrieval, it has become inherently important to resort to automated means of predicting stock market prices. In this paper, we propose Taureau, a framework that leverages Twitter…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-04-03 Nicholas Milikich , Joshua Johnson

It has been shown that financial news leads to the fluctuation of stock prices. However, previous work on news-driven financial market prediction focused only on predicting stock price movement without providing an explanation. In this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-02-14 Linyi Yang , Zheng Zhang , Su Xiong , Lirui Wei , James Ng , Lina Xu , Ruihai Dong

Micro-blogging sources such as the Twitter social network provide valuable real-time data for market prediction models. Investors' opinions in this network follow the fluctuations of the stock markets and often include educated speculations…

The Web is a vast virtual space where people can share their opinions, impacting all aspects of life and having implications for marketing and communication. The most up-to-date and comprehensive information can be found on social media…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-15 Melvin Mokhtari , Ali Seraj , Niloufar Saeedi , Adel Karshenas

Decisions taken in our everyday lives are based on a wide variety of information so it is generally very difficult to assess what are the strategies that guide us. Stock market therefore provides a rich environment to study how people take…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-09-28 Mario Gutiérrez-Roig , Carlota Segura , Jordi Duch , Josep Perelló

The financial industry poses great challenges with risk modeling and profit generation. These entities are intricately tied to the sophisticated prediction of stock movements. A stock forecaster must untangle the randomness and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-09-14 Luke Sanborn , Matthew Sahagun

This paper proposes a novel adaptive algorithm for the automated short-term trading of financial instrument. The algorithm adopts a semantic sentiment analysis technique to inspect the Twitter posts and to use them to predict the behaviour…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-01-17 Paolo Cremonesi , Chiara Francalanci , Alessandro Poli , Roberto Pagano , Luca Mazzoni , Alberto Maggioni , Mehdi Elahi

This research investigates the growing trend of retail investors participating in certain stocks by organizing themselves on social media platforms, particularly Reddit. Previous studies have highlighted a notable association between Reddit…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-22 Tim Matthies , Thomas Löhden , Stephan Leible , Jun-Patrick Raabe

We attempt to explain stock market dynamics in terms of the interaction among three variables: market price, investor opinion and information flow. We propose a framework for such interaction and apply it to build a model of stock market…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-09-23 Maxim Gusev , Dimitri Kroujiline , Boris Govorkov , Sergey V. Sharov , Dmitry Ushanov , Maxim Zhilyaev

During the 2016 US elections Twitter experienced unprecedented levels of propaganda and fake news through the collaboration of bots and hired persons, the ramifications of which are still being debated. This work proposes an approach to…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-11-30 Erdem Beğenilmiş , Suzan Üsküdarlı

Forecasting financial market trends through time series analysis and natural language processing poses a complex and demanding undertaking, owing to the numerous variables that can influence stock prices. These variables encompass a…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-09-04 Ali Asgarov

Multivariate Distributions are needed to capture the correlation structure of complex systems. In previous works, we developed a Random Matrix Model for such correlated multivariate joint probability density functions that accounts for the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-02 Anton J. Heckens , Efstratios Manolakis , Cedric Schuhmann , Thomas Guhr