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Machine learning (ML) is transforming healthcare, but safe clinical decisions demand reliable uncertainty estimates that standard ML models fail to provide. Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular tool that allows users to turn heuristic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Klaus-Rudolf Kladny , Bernhard Schölkopf , Lisa Koch , Christian F. Baumgartner , Michael Muehlebach

Conditional validity and length efficiency are two crucial aspects of conformal prediction (CP). Conditional validity ensures accurate uncertainty quantification for data subpopulations, while proper length efficiency ensures that the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-12 Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

Accurate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction coupled with uncertainty quantification remains a critical challenge in aerospace prognostics. This research introduces a novel uncertainty-aware deep learning framework that learns aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-27 Krishang Sharma

Conformal Prediction (CP) serves as a robust framework that quantifies uncertainty in predictions made by Machine Learning (ML) models. Unlike traditional point predictors, CP generates statistically valid prediction regions, also known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-29 A. A. Balinsky , A. D. Balinsky

Accurately predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of rotating machinery, such as bearings, is essential for ensuring equipment reliability and minimizing unexpected industrial failures. Traditional data-driven deep learning methods face…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-01-14 Laifa Tao , Zhengduo Zhao , Xuesong Wang , Bin Li , Wenchao Zhan , Xuanyuan Su , Shangyu Li , Qixuan Huang , Haifei Liu , Chen Lu , Zhixuan Lian

Prediction of Remaining Useful Lifetime(RUL) in the modern manufacturing and automation workplace for machines and tools is essential in Industry 4.0. This is clearly evident as continuous tool wear, or worse, sudden machine breakdown will…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-07-05 Haoren Guo , Haiyue Zhu , Jiahui Wang , Vadakkepat Prahlad , Weng Khuen Ho , Tong Heng Lee

Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) are emerging approaches to product life cycle that will maintain system safety and improve reliability, while reducing operating and maintenance costs. This is particularly relevant for aerospace…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-08-11 Pier Carlo Berri , Matteo D. L. Dalla Vedova , Laura Mainini

Prognostic and Health Management (PHM) are crucial ways to avoid unnecessary maintenance for Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) and improve system reliability. Predicting the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) is one of the most challenging tasks for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Zekai Zhang , Dan Li , Shunyu Wu , Junya Cai , Bo Zhang , See Kiong Ng , Zibin Zheng

We discuss a concept denoted as Conformal Prediction (CP) in this paper. While initially stemming from the world of machine learning, it was never applied or analyzed in the context of short-term electricity price forecasting. Therefore, we…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-11-17 Christopher Kath , Florian Ziel

This paper is aimed at using the newly developing field of physics informed machine learning (PIML) to develop models for predicting the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) aircraft engines. We consider the well-known benchmark NASA Commercial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-25 Sriram Nagaraj , Truman Hickok

Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation plays a critical role in Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). Traditional machine health maintenance systems are often costly, requiring sufficient prior expertise, and are difficult to fit into…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-13 Zhi Lai , Mengjuan Liu , Yunzhu Pan , Dajiang Chen

This paper presents a framework for estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of mechanical systems. The framework consists of a multi-layer perceptron and an evolutionary algorithm for optimizing the data-related parameters. The framework…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-16 David Laredo , Zhaoyin Chen , Oliver Schütze , Jian-Qiao Sun

Estimating the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of mechanical systems is pivotal in Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). Rolling-element bearings are among the most frequent causes of machinery failure, highlighting the need for robust RUL…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Waleed Razzaq , Yun-Bo Zhao

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is crucial for maintaining modern industrial systems, where equipment reliability and operational safety are paramount. Traditional methods, based on small-scale deep learning or physical/statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-07 Yan Chen , Cheng Liu

Deep-space habitats (DSHs) are safety-critical systems that must operate autonomously for long periods, often beyond the reach of ground-based maintenance or expert intervention. Monitoring system health and anticipating failures are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-03 Benjamin Peters , Ayush Mohanty , Xiaolei Fang , Stephen K. Robinson , Nagi Gebraeel

Estimating the reliability of individual predictions is key to increase the adoption of computational models and artificial intelligence in preclinical drug discovery, as well as to foster its application to guide decision making in…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-08-13 Isidro Cortés-Ciriano , Andreas Bender

Conformal prediction (CP) is a general framework to quantify the predictive uncertainty of machine learning models that uses a set prediction to include the true label with a valid probability. To align the uncertainty measured by CP,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Xuesong Jia , Yuanjie Shi , Ziquan Liu , Yi Xu , Yan Yan

The failures of train wheels account for disruptions of train operations and even a large portion of train derailments. Remaining useful life (RUL) of a wheelset measures the how soon the next failure will arrive, and the failure type…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-21 Weixin Wang

Prognostic Health Management (PHM) systems monitor and predict equipment health. A key task is Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation, which predicts how long a component, such as a rolling element bearing, will operate before failure. Many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Waleed Razzaq , Yun-Bo Zhao

The quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) regression model is a commonly used technique for predicting biological activities of compounds using their molecular descriptors. Predictions from QSAR models can help, for example,…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2023-04-04 Yuting Xu , Andy Liaw , Robert P. Sheridan , Vladimir Svetnik