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Progress in probabilistic generative models has accelerated, developing richer models with neural architectures, implicit densities, and with scalable algorithms for their Bayesian inference. However, there has been limited progress in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-31 Dustin Tran , David M. Blei

Through recognizing causal subgraphs, causal graph learning (CGL) has risen to be a promising approach for improving the generalizability of graph neural networks under out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. However, the empirical successes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-02 Yujia Yin , Tianyi Qu , Zihao Wang , Yifan Chen

Estimating causal effects from nonexperimental data is a fundamental problem in many fields of science. A key component of this task is selecting an appropriate set of covariates for confounding adjustment to avoid bias. Most existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Zheng Li , Xichen Guo , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Zhi Geng

We propose a method to infer causal structures containing both discrete and continuous variables. The idea is to select causal hypotheses for which the conditional density of every variable, given its causes, becomes smooth. We define a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2009-10-30 Dominik Janzing , Xiaohai Sun , Bernhard Schoelkopf

Inferring the effect of interventions within complex systems is a fundamental problem of statistics. A widely studied approach employs structural causal models that postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-14 David Strieder , Mathias Drton

Although regression trees were originally designed for large datasets, they can profitably be used on small datasets as well, including those from replicated or unreplicated complete factorial experiments. We show that in the latter…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Wei-Yin Loh

Network interference occurs when treatments assigned to some units affect the outcomes of others. Traditional approaches often assume that the observed network correctly specifies the interference structure. However, in practice,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Bar Weinstein , Daniel Nevo

Analyzing social networks is challenging. Key features of relational data require the use of non-standard statistical methods such as developing system-specific null, or reference, models that randomize one or more components of the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-03-08 Elizabeth A. Hobson , Matthew J. Silk , Nina H. Fefferman , Daniel B. Larremore , Puck Rombach , Saray Shai , Noa Pinter-Wollman

A growing number of researchers are conducting randomized experiments to analyze causal relationships in network settings where units influence one another. A dominant methodology for analyzing these experiments is design-based, leveraging…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-30 Ambarish Chattopadhyay , Kosuke Imai , Jose R. Zubizarreta

Causal inference in brain networks has traditionally relied on regression-based models such as Granger causality, structural equation modeling, and dynamic causal modeling. While effective for identifying directed associations, these…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-01 Moo K. Chung , Luigi Maccotta , Aaron Struck

In longitudinal studies where units are embedded in space or a social network, interference may arise, meaning that a unit's outcome can depend on treatment histories of others. The presence of interference poses significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Ye Wang , Michael Jetsupphasuk

The intuition of causation is so fundamental that almost every research study in life sciences refers to this concept. However a widely accepted formal definition of causal influence between observables is still missing. In the framework of…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2017-04-26 Andrea Auconi , Andrea Giansanti , Edda Klipp

We consider linear models where $d$ potential causes $X_1,...,X_d$ are correlated with one target quantity $Y$ and propose a method to infer whether the association is causal or whether it is an artifact caused by overfitting or hidden…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-05 Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schoelkopf

This study investigates the causal interpretation of linear social interaction models in the presence of endogeneity in network formation under a heterogeneous treatment effects framework. We consider an experimental setting in which…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-23 Tadao Hoshino

Methodologies to infer financial networks from the price series of speculative assets vary, however, they generally involve bivariate or multivariate predictive modelling to reveal causal and correlational structures within the time series…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-08-31 Cameron Cornell , Lewis Mitchell , Matthew Roughan

Structural causal models postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables. The causal structure underlying each such model is naturally represented by a directed graph whose edges indicate for each variable which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-15 David Strieder , Tobias Freidling , Stefan Haffner , Mathias Drton

This paper provides robust estimators and efficient inference of causal effects involving multiple interacting mediators. Most existing works either impose a linear model assumption among the mediators or are restricted to handle…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-12 Haoyu Wei , Hengrui Cai , Chengchun Shi , Rui Song

A graph neural network transforms features in each vertex's neighborhood into a vector representation of the vertex. Afterward, each vertex's representation is used independently for predicting its label. This standard pipeline implicitly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-18 Junteng Jia , Austin R. Benson

Causal Bayesian networks are 'causal' models since they make predictions about interventional distributions. To connect such causal model predictions to real-world outcomes, we must determine which actions in the world correspond to which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-04 Frederik Hytting Jørgensen , Luigi Gresele , Sebastian Weichwald

Parametric causal modelling techniques rarely provide functionality for counterfactual estimation, often at the expense of modelling complexity. Since causal estimations depend on the family of functions used to model the data, simplistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-16 Álvaro Parafita , Jordi Vitrià