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This paper investigates Hawkes processes on the positive real line exhibiting both self-excitation and inhibition. Each point of this point process impacts its future intensity by the addition of a signed reproduction function. The case of…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Manon Costa , Carl Graham , Laurence Marsalle , Viet Chi Tran

In this paper we study the frequentist properties of Bayesian approaches in linear high dimensional Hawkes processes in a sparse regime where the number of interaction functions acting on each component of the Hawkes process is much smaller…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-29 Judith Rousseau , Vincent Rivoirard , Déborah Sulem

Hawkes stochastic point process models have emerged as valuable statistical tools for analyzing viral contagion. The spatiotemporal Hawkes process characterizes the speeds at which viruses spread within human populations. Unfortunately,…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-17 Seyoon Ko , Marc A. Suchard , Andrew J. Holbrook

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-23 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

The field of predictive process monitoring focuses on case-level models to predict a single specific outcome such as a particular objective, (remaining) time, or next activity/remaining sequence. Recently, a longer-horizon, model-wide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-11 Johannes De Smedt , Jochen De Weerdt

We consider the problem of learning the network of mutual excitations (i.e., the dependency graph) in a non-stationary, multivariate Hawkes process. We consider a general setting where baseline rates at each node are time-varying and delay…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Elchanan Mossel , Anirudh Sridhar

This chapter provides an accessible introduction for point processes, and especially Hawkes processes, for modeling discrete, inter-dependent events over continuous time. We start by reviewing the definitions and the key concepts in point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-10 Marian-Andrei Rizoiu , Young Lee , Swapnil Mishra , Lexing Xie

We propose an extension to Hawkes processes by treating the levels of self-excitation as a stochastic differential equation. Our new point process allows better approximation in application domains where events and intensities accelerate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-09-23 Young Lee , Kar Wai Lim , Cheng Soon Ong

In this paper we propose an overview of the recent academic literature devoted to the applications of Hawkes processes in finance. Hawkes processes constitute a particular class of multivariate point processes that has become very popular…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2015-05-19 Emmanuel Bacry , Iacopo Mastromatteo , Jean-François Muzy

The Hawkes process (HP) is commonly used to model event sequences with self-reinforcing dynamics, including electronic health records (EHRs). Traditional HPs capture self-reinforcement via parametric impact functions that can be inspected…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-23 Yuankang Zhao , Matthew Engelhard

A Hawkes process model with a time-varying background rate is developed for analyzing the high-frequency financial data. In our model, the logarithm of the background rate is modeled by a linear model with a relatively large number of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-07-24 Takahiro Omi , Yoshito Hirata , Kazuyuki Aihara

We consider a new class of non Markovian processes with a countable number of interacting components, both in discrete and continuous time. Each component is represented by a point process indicating if it has a spike or not at a given…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2015-02-24 A. Galves , E. Löcherbach

When the sample path of a Hawkes process is observed discretely, such that only the total event counts in disjoint time intervals are known, the likelihood function becomes intractable. To overcome the challenge of likelihood-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Jason J. Lambe , Feng Chen , Tom Stindl , Tsz-Kit Jeffrey Kwan

We observe the actions of a $K$ sub-sample of $N$ individuals up to time $t$ for some large $K<N$. We model the relationships of individuals by i.i.d. Bernoulli($p$)-random variables, where $p\in (0,1]$ is an unknown parameter. The rate of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-15 Chenguang Liu

The marked Hawkes risk process is a compound point process for which the occurrence and amplitude of past events impact the future. Thanks to its autoregressive properties, it found applications in various fields such as neuosciences,…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-11 Laure Coutin , Mahmoud Khabou

Hawkes Process has been used to model Limit Order Book (LOB) dynamics in several ways in the literature however the focus has been limited to capturing the inter-event times while the order size is usually assumed to be constant. We propose…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-15 Konark Jain , Nick Firoozye , Jonathan Kochems , Philip Treleaven

Inference and testing in general point process models such as the Hawkes model is predominantly based on asymptotic approximations for likelihood-based estimators and tests. As an alternative, and to improve finite sample performance, this…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-09-22 Giuseppe Cavaliere , Ye Lu , Anders Rahbek , Jacob Stærk-Østergaard

We adopt the interpretability offered by a parametric, Hawkes-process-inspired conditional probability mass function for the marks and apply variational inference techniques to derive a general and scalable inferential framework for marked…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-21 Aristeidis Panos , Ioannis Kosmidis , Petros Dellaportas

We are interested in the problem of classifying Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHP) paths coming from several classes. MHP form a versatile family of point processes that models interactions between connected individuals within a network.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Christophe Denis , Laure Sansonnet , Romain Edmond Lacoste

Hawkes process models are used in settings where past events increase the likelihood of future events occurring. Many applications record events as counts on a regular grid, yet discrete-time Hawkes models remain comparatively underused and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-11 Trinnhallen Brisley , Gordon Ross , Daniel Paulin