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Clinical trials usually involve sequential patient entry. When designing a clinical trial, it is often desirable to include a provision for interim analyses of accumulating data with the potential for stopping the trial early. We review…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-13 Tianjian Zhou , Yuan Ji

Dose-finding trials for oncology studies are traditionally designed to assess safety in the early stages of drug development. With the rise of molecularly targeted therapies and immuno-oncology compounds, biomarker-driven approaches have…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-15 Xijin Chen , Pavel Mozgunov , Richard D. Baird , Thomas Jaki

Composite endpoints are widely used as primary endpoints in clinical trials. Designing trials with time-to-event endpoints can be particularly challenging because the proportional hazard assumption usually does not hold when using a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-07 Jordi Cortés Martinez , Marta Bofill Roig , Guadalupe Gómez Melis

Adaptive experimental designs have gained popularity in clinical trials and online experiments. Unlike traditional, fixed experimental designs, adaptive designs can dynamically adjust treatment randomization probabilities and other design…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-19 Wenxin Zhang , Mark van der Laan

Multi-Arm, Multi-Stage (MAMS) clinical trial designs allow for multiple therapies to be compared across a spectrum of clinical trial phases. MAMS designs can be categorized into several overarching design groups, including adaptive designs…

Time-to-event endpoints are central to evaluate treatment efficacy across many disease areas. Many trial protocols include interim analyses within group-sequential designs that control type I error via spending functions or boundary…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-19 Edoardo Ratti , Federico L. Perlino , Stefania Galimberti , Maria G. Valsecchi

Composite endpoints are widely used in cardiovascular clinical trials to improve statistical efficiency while preserving clinical relevance. The Win Ratio (WR) measure and more general frameworks of Win Statistics have emerged as…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-24 Yunhan Mou , Fan Li , Denise Esserman , Yuan Huang

Observational studies often benefit from an abundance of observational units. This can lead to studies that -- while challenged by issues of internal validity -- have inferences derived from sample sizes substantially larger than randomized…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-24 Rachael C. Aikens , Dylan Greaves , Michael Baiocchi

Composite endpoints that combine multiple outcomes on different scales are common in clinical trials, particularly in chronic conditions. In many of these cases, patients will have to cross a predefined responder threshold in each of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-20 Martina McMenamin , Jessica K. Barrett , Anna Berglind , James M. S. Wason

Incorporating historical data or real-world evidence has a great potential to improve the efficiency of phase I clinical trials and to accelerate drug development. For model-based designs, such as the continuous reassessment method (CRM),…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-11 Yanhong Zhou , J. Jack Lee , Shunguang Wang , Stuart Bailey , Ying Yuan

This paper proposes a novel criterion for the allocation of patients in Phase~I dose-escalation clinical trials aiming to find the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). Conventionally, using a model-based approach the next patient is allocated to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-17 Pavel Mozgunov , Thomas Jaki

For many machine learning problems, data is abundant and it may be prohibitive to make multiple passes through the full training set. In this context, we investigate strategies for dynamically increasing the effective sample size, when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-10-10 Hadi Daneshmand , Aurelien Lucchi , Thomas Hofmann

Biomarker-guided designs are increasingly used to evaluate personalized treatments based on patients' biomarker status in Phase II and III clinical trials. With adaptive enrichment, these designs can improve the efficiency of evaluating the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-11 Kaiyuan Hua , Hwanhee Hong , Xiaofei Wang

In early phase drug development of combination therapy, the primary objective is to preliminarily assess whether there is additive activity from a novel agent when combined with an established monotherapy. Due to potential feasibility…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-24 Zhaohua Lu , John Toso , Girma Ayele , Philip He

When prospectively developing a new clinical prediction model (CPM), fixed sample size calculations are typically conducted before data collection based on sensible assumptions. But if the assumptions are inaccurate the actual sample size…

The e-value is gaining traction as a robust alternative to p-values and Bayes factors for quantifying statistical evidence. e-values are a promising method for adaptive clinical trials due to their anytime-validity: e-values ensure type I…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Stef Baas , Judith ter Schure , Joost van Rosmalen

In adaptive clinical trials, the conventional confidence interval (CI) for a treatment effect is prone to undesirable properties such as undercoverage and potential inconsistency with the final hypothesis testing decision. Accordingly, as…

This paper studies empirical risk minimization (ERM) problems for large-scale datasets and incorporates the idea of adaptive sample size methods to improve the guaranteed convergence bounds for first-order stochastic and deterministic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-05 Aryan Mokhtari , Alejandro Ribeiro

Efforts to develop biomarker-targeted anti-cancer therapies have progressed rapidly in recent years. Six antibodies acting on programmed death ligand 1 or programmed death 1 pathways were approved in 75 cancer indications between 2015 and…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-07 Emily C. Zabor , Alexander M. Kaizer , Nathan A. Pennell , Brian P. Hobbs

In many phase II trials in solid tumours, patients are assessed using endpoints based on the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours (RECIST) scale. Often, analyses are based on the response rate. This is the proportion of patients…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-02 Chien-Ju Lin , James Wason