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In oncology phase I trials, model-assisted designs have been increasingly adopted because they enable adaptive yet operationally simple dose adjustment based on accumulating safety data, leading to a paradigm shift in dose-escalation…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-23 Kana Yamada , Hisato Sunami , Kentaro Takeda , Keisuke Hanada , Masahiro Kojima

In oncology, phase II or multiple expansion cohort trials are crucial for clinical development plans. This is because they aid in identifying potent agents with sufficient activity to continue development and confirm the proof of concept.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-24 Takuya Yoshimoto , Satoru Shinoda , Kouji Yamamoto , Kouji Tahata

Due to ethical and economical reasons, sequential single-arm trial designs are used for assessing the therapeutic efficacy of new treatments in phase II trials. Simon's 2-stage design and Lan-DeMets' $\alpha$-spending function method with…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-31 Tasuku Inao , Isao Yokota

Recently there has been much work on early phase cancer designs that incorporate both toxicity and efficacy data, called Phase I-II designs because they combine elements of both phases. However, they do not explicitly address the Phase II…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-12 Jay Bartroff , Tze Leung Lai , Balasubramanian Narasimhan

Tumor response, a binary variable, has historically been the main measure of antitumor activity for many cancer phase II single-arm trials. Simon two-stage designs are often used. Sargent et al. proposed a three-outcome trial design in this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-20 Minghua Shan

Immunotherapies have revolutionized cancer treatment. Unlike chemotherapies, immune agents often take longer time to show benefit, and the complex and unique mechanism of action of these agents renders the use of multiple endpoints more…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-02 Ruitao Lin , Robert L Coleman , Ying Yuan

We propose a new integrated phase I/II trial design to identify the most efficacious dose combination that also satisfies certain safety requirements for drug-combination trials. We first take a Bayesian copula-type model for dose finding…

Applications · Statistics 2011-08-09 Ying Yuan , Guosheng Yin

In single-arm phase II oncology trials, the most popular choice of design is Simon's two-stage design, which allows early stopping at one interim analysis. However, the expected trial sample size can be reduced further by allowing…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-09 Martin Law , Michael J. Grayling , Adrian P. Mander

Group sequential designs (GSDs) are well established and the most commonly used adaptive design in confirmatory clinical trials with interim analyses. However, they remain underutilised, and their implementation involves unique theoretical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Zhangyi He , Suzie Cro , Laurent Billot

It is increasingly common for therapies in oncology to be given in combination. In some cases, patients can benefit from the interaction between two drugs, although often at the risk of higher toxicity. A large number of designs to conduct…

Background: Drug development is often inefficient, costly and lengthy, yet it is essential for evaluating the safety and efficacy of new interventions. Compared with other disease areas, this is particularly true for Phase II / III cancer…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-13 Abigail Burdon , Thomas Jaki , Xijin Chen , Pavel Mozgunov , Haiyan Zheng , Richard Baird

Adaptive Phase 2/3 designs hold great promise in contemporary oncology drug development, especially when limited data from Phase 1 dose-finding is insufficient for identifying an optimal dose. However, there is a general concern about…

Applications · Statistics 2025-02-25 Cong Chen , Mo Huang

It is crucial to design Phase II cancer clinical trials that balance the efficiency of treatment selection with clinical practicality. Sargent and Goldberg proposed a frequentist design that allow decision-making even when the primary…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-15 Moka Komaki , Satoru Shinoda , Haiyan Zheng , Kouji Yamamoto

Clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints, such as overall survival (OS) or progression-free survival (PFS), are fundamental for evaluating new treatments, particularly in immuno-oncology. However, modern therapies, such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-10 James Salsbury , Jeremy Oakley , Steven Julious , Lisa Hampson

Multi-arm trials are gaining interest in practice given the statistical and logistical advantages they can offer. The standard approach uses a fixed allocation ratio, but there is a call for making it adaptive and skewing the allocation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-16 Gianmarco Caruso , Pavel Mozgunov

Multi-arm multi-stage (MAMS) trials have gained popularity, due to their improved efficiency in evaluating multiple treatments. A traditional MAMS trial often decreases the expected sample size of the trial compared to just running a…

For a trial with primary endpoint overall survival for a molecule with curative potential, statistical methods that rely on the proportional hazards assumption may underestimate the power and the time to final analysis. We show how a cure…

Applications · Statistics 2023-04-17 Kaspar Rufibach , Dominik Heinzmann , Annabelle Monnet

Dose-finding trials are a key component of the drug development process and rely on a statistical design to help inform dosing decisions. Triallists wishing to choose a design require knowledge of operating characteristics of competing…

Computation · Statistics 2025-03-11 Michael Sweeting , Daniel Slade , Dan Jackson , Kristian Brock

Adaptive designs are commonly used in clinical and drug development studies for optimum utilization of available resources. In this article, we consider the problem of estimating the effect of the selected (better) treatment using a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-24 Masihuddin , Neeraj Misra

Modern clinical trials and cohort studies gather low-cost data on all participants but may have limited resources to assess expensive exposures such as biomarkers or genomic data. When interest lies in associations involving expensive…