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Related papers: Patterns in Spatio-Temporal Extremes

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A geometric representation for multivariate extremes, based on the shapes of scaled sample clouds in light-tailed margins and their so-called limit sets, has recently been shown to connect several existing extremal dependence concepts.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-03 Jennifer Wadsworth , Ryan Campbell

We analyse extreme daily minimum temperatures in winter months over the island of Ireland from 1950-2022. We model the marginal distributions of extreme winter minima using a generalised Pareto distribution (GPD), capturing temporal and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-07 Dáire Healy , Jonathan A. Tawn , Peter Thorne , Andrew Parnell

Modeling precipitation and its accumulation over time and space is essential for flood risk assessment. In this paper, we analyze rainfall data collected over several years through a micro-scale precipitation sensor network in Montpellier,…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-23 Chloé Serre-Combe , Nicolas Meyer , Thomas Opitz , Gwladys Toulemonde

Extreme precipitation events with large spatial extents may have more severe impacts than localized events as they can lead to widespread flooding. It is debated how climate change may affect the spatial extent of precipitation extremes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-07 Peng Zhong , Manuela Brunner , Thomas Opitz , Raphaël Huser

Statistical modeling of multivariate and spatial extreme events has attracted broad attention in various areas of science. Max-stable distributions and processes are the natural class of models for this purpose, and many parametric families…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-09 Clement Dombry , Sebastian Engelke , Marco Oesting

Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-23 Warren L. Davis , Max Carlson , Irina Tezaur , Diana Bull , Kara Peterson , Laura Swiler

Understanding and mapping extreme heat is critical for risk management and public health planning, particularly in regions with complex terrain and heterogeneous climate. We present a case study of extreme heat in the Four Corners region of…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-22 Ben Seiyon Lee , Reetam Majumder , Jordan Richards , Emma S. Simpson , Likun Zhang

To address the need for efficient inference for a range of hydrological extreme value problems, spatial pooling of information is the standard approach for marginal tail estimation. We propose the first extreme value spatial clustering…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-21 Christian Rohrbeck , Jonathan A Tawn

In this chapter, we show how to efficiently model high-dimensional extreme peaks-over-threshold events over space in complex non-stationary settings, using extended latent Gaussian Models (LGMs), and how to exploit the fitted model in…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-07 Arnab Hazra , Raphaël Huser , Árni V. Jóhannesson

The Mediterranean is strongly affected by Extreme Precipitation Events (EPEs), sometimes leading to negative impacts on society, economy, and the environment. Understanding such natural hazards and their drivers is essential to mitigate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-06-16 Nikolaos Mastrantonas , Pedro Herrera-Lormendez , Linus Magnusson , Florian Pappenberger , Jörg Matschullat

Focusing on regression based analysis of extremes in a presence of systematically missing covariates, this work presents a data-driven spatio-temporal regression based clustering of threshold excesses. It is shown that in a presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-02 Olga Kaiser , Dimitri Igdalov , Olivia Martius , Illia Horenko

To disentangle the complex non-stationary dependence structure of precipitation extremes over the entire contiguous U.S., we propose a flexible local approach based on factor copula models. Our sub-asymptotic spatial modeling framework…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-26 Daniela Castro-Camilo , Raphaël Huser

A Bayesian non-parametric framework for studying time-to-event data is proposed, where the prior distribution is allowed to depend on an additional random source, and may update with the sample size. Such scenarios are natural, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-06 Martin Bladt , Jorge González Cázares

Spatial modelling of extreme values allows studying the risk of joint occurrence of extreme events at different locations and is of significant interest in climatic and other environmental sciences. A popular class of dependence models for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-11 Lorenzo Dell'Oro , Carlo Gaetan , Thomas Opitz

A nonparametric procedure to estimate the conditional probability that a nonstationary geostatistical process exceeds a certain threshold value is proposed. The method consists of a bootstrap algorithm that combines conditional simulation…

We propose and compare methods for the analysis of extreme events in complex systems governed by PDEs that involve random parameters, in situations where we are interested in quantifying the probability that a scalar function of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Shanyin Tong , Eric Vanden-Eijnden , Georg Stadler

We study the spatio-temporal features of extremal sub-daily precipitation data over the Piave river basin in northeast Italy using a rich database of observed hourly rainfall. Empirical evidence suggests that both the marginal and…

Applications · Statistics 2025-11-26 Dáire Healy , Ilaria Prosdocimi , Isadora Antoniano-Villalobos

Both marginal and dependence features must be described when modelling the extremes of a stationary time series. There are standard approaches to marginal modelling, but long- and short-range dependence of extremes may both appear. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-17 Thomas Lugrin , Anthony C. Davison , Jonathan A. Tawn

Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…

The identification of regions of similar climatological behavior can be utilized for the discovery of spatial relationships over long-range scales, including teleconnections. In this regard, the global picture of the interdependence…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-05-06 Zhen Su , Henning Meyerhenke , Jürgen Kurths