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Gaussian Processes (\textbf{GPs}) are flexible non-parametric models with strong probabilistic interpretation. While being a standard choice for performing inference on time series, GPs have few techniques to work in a streaming setting.…

Gaussian processes (GPs) enable principled computation of model uncertainty, making them attractive for safety-critical applications. Such scenarios demand that GP decisions are not only accurate, but also robust to perturbations. In this…

We present a new numerical method to price vanilla options quickly in time-changed Brownian motion models. The method is based on rational function approximations of the Black-Scholes formula. Detailed numerical results are given for a…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used as surrogate models for complicated functions in scientific and engineering applications. In many cases, prior knowledge about the function to be approximated, such as monotonicity, is available and…

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are widely seen as the state-of-the-art surrogate models for Bayesian optimization (BO) due to their ability to model uncertainty and their performance on tasks where correlations are easily captured (such as those…

Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a powerful framework for extrapolation, interpolation, and noise removal in regression and classification. This paper considers constraining GPs to arbitrarily-shaped domains with boundary conditions. We…

We develop an automated variational method for inference in models with Gaussian process (GP) priors and general likelihoods. The method supports multiple outputs and multiple latent functions and does not require detailed knowledge of the…

This paper is devoted to the application of B-splines to volatility modeling, specifically the calibration of the leverage function in stochastic local volatility models and the parameterization of an arbitrage-free implied volatility…

In this paper, we consider estimating sparse inverse covariance of a Gaussian graphical model whose conditional independence is assumed to be partially known. Similarly as in [5], we formulate it as an $l_1$-norm penalized maximum…

This paper considers a stochastic control framework, in which the residual model uncertainty of the dynamical system is learned using a Gaussian Process (GP). In the proposed formulation, the residual model uncertainty consists of a…

We develop an unsupervised deep learning method to solve the barrier options under the Bergomi model. The neural networks serve as the approximate option surfaces and are trained to satisfy the PDE as well as the boundary conditions. Two…

We develop robust pricing and hedging of a weighted variance swap when market prices for a finite number of co--maturing put options are given. We assume the given prices do not admit arbitrage and deduce no-arbitrage bounds on the weighted…

Gaussian process (GP) surrogate modeling for large computer experiments is limited by cubic runtimes, especially with data from stochastic simulations with input-dependent noise. A popular workaround to reduce computational complexity…

Nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) is one of the few control methods that can handle multivariable nonlinear controlsystems with constraints. Gaussian processes (GPs) present a powerful tool to identify the required plant model and…

We study a special case of the problem of statistical learning without the i.i.d. assumption. Specifically, we suppose a learning method is presented with a sequence of data points, and required to make a prediction (e.g., a classification)…

This paper proposes a hybrid methodology to improve the approximation of SABR (Stochastic Alpha Beta Rho) implied volatility by combining analytical structure with machine learning. The approach augments the neural-network input…

Off-the-shelf Gaussian Process (GP) covariance functions encode smoothness assumptions on the structure of the function to be modeled. To model complex and non-differentiable functions, these smoothness assumptions are often too…

The sparse pseudo-input Gaussian process (SPGP) is a new approximation method for speeding up GP regression in the case of a large number of data points N. The approximation is controlled by the gradient optimization of a small set of M…

Gaussian process (GP) models are widely used to emulate propagation uncertainty in computer experiments. GP emulation sits comfortably within an analytically tractable Bayesian framework. Apart from propagating uncertainty of the input…

We apply supervised deep neural networks (DNNs) for pricing and calibration of both vanilla and exotic options under both diffusion and pure jump processes with and without stochastic volatility. We train our neural network models under…