Related papers: Understanding the food component of inflation
We develop a medium-size semi-structural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view - often expressed by central banks - that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a…
The empirical literature provides mixed results on the relationship between inflation and unemployment, therefore, there is no consensus on validity and stability of the Phillips Curve. It also seems to be closely related with…
Although empirical literature regarding the Phillips curve is sizeable enough, there is still no wide consensus on its validity and stability. The literature shows that the Phillips relationship is fragile and varies across countries and…
In a globalised world, inflation in a given country may be becoming less responsive to domestic economic activity, while being increasingly determined by international conditions. Consequently, understanding the international sources of…
Since the beginning of this century the Colombian monetary authority has conducted monetary policy under a strategy based on setting targets for interest rate and inflation, while allowing the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar in domestic…
We provide novel systematic cross-country evidence that the link between domestic labour markets and CPI inflation has weakened considerably in advanced economies during recent decades. The central estimate is that the short-run…
A quantitative model is presented linking the rate of inflation and unemployment to the change in the level of labor force. The link between the involved variables is a linear one with all coefficients of individual and generalized models…
The evolution of the rate of price inflation and unemployment in Japan has been modeled within the Phillips curve framework. As an extension to the Phillips curve, we represent both variables as linear functions of the change rate of labor…
Monetary inflation is a sustained increase in the money supply than can result in price inflation, which is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services. The objectives of this paper were to develop economic models to (1)…
The empirical literature that covers Phillips Curve analysis during recessionary periods is notably scant. The Great Recession has rekindled a debate on the validity and stability of the Phillips Curve which is still ongoing. The basis for…
In the search for political-economic tools for greenhouse gas mitigation, carbon pricing, which includes carbon tax and cap-and-trade, is implemented by many governments. However, the inflating food prices in carbon-pricing countries, such…
This paper uses new and recently introduced mathematical techniques to undertake a data-driven study on the systemic nature of global inflation. We start by investigating country CPI inflation over the past 70 years. There, we highlight the…
In this paper, we analyze the long-term distributive impact of climate change through rising food prices. We use a standard incomplete markets model and account for non-linear Engel curves for food consumption. For the calibration of our…
We model the rate of inflation and unemployment in Austria since the early 1960s within the Phillips/Fisher framework. The change in labour force is the driving force representing economic activity in the Phillips curve. For Austria, this…
In this paper, a mathematical model based on the one-parameter Mittag-Leffler function is proposed to be used for the first time to describe the relation between unemployment rate and inflation rate, also known as the Phillips curve. The…
This paper examines the drivers of CPI inflation through the lens of a simple, but computationally intensive machine learning technique. More specifically, it predicts inflation across 20 advanced countries between 2000 and 2021, relying on…
We analyze the forces that explain inflation using a panel of 122 countries from 1997 to 2015 with 37 regressors. 98 models motivated by economic theory are compared to a gradient boosting algorithm, non-linearities and structural breaks…
Increases in global food prices have led to widespread hunger and social unrest---and an imperative to understand their causes. In a previous paper published in September 2011, we constructed for the first time a dynamic model that…
In the recent times of global Covid pandemic, the Federal Reserve has raised the concerns of upsurges in prices. Given the complexity of interaction between inflation and inequality, we examine whether the impact of inflation on inequality…
Recent increases in basic food prices are severely impacting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol…