Related papers: A smooth transition autoregressive model for matri…

A regularized vector autoregressive hidden semi-Markov model is developed to analyze multivariate financial time series with switching data generating regimes. Furthermore, an augmented EM algorithm is proposed for parameter estimation by…

We analyze a varying-coefficient dynamic spatial autoregressive model with spatial fixed effects. One salient feature of the model is the incorporation of multiple spatial weight matrices through their linear combinations with varying…

We propose a methodology to analyze data arising from a curve that, over its domain, switches among J states. We consider a sequence of response variables, where each response y depends on a covariate x according to an unobserved state z.…

The smooth piecewise-linear models cover a wide range of applications nowadays. Basically, there are two classes of them: models are transitional or hyperbolic according to their behaviour at the phase-transition zones. This study explored…

Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…

This paper introduces a flexible time-varying network vector autoregressive model framework for large-scale time series. A latent group structure is imposed on the heterogeneous and node-specific time-varying momentum and network spillover…

We consider the problem of estimating an additive regression function in an inverse regres- sion model with a convolution type operator. A smooth backfitting procedure is developed and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimator is…

Time series subject to change in regime have attracted much interest in domains such as econometry, finance or meteorology. For discrete-valued regimes, some models such as the popular Hidden Markov Chain (HMC) describe time series whose…

In this paper we introduce the class of beta seasonal autoregressive moving average ($\beta$SARMA) models for modeling and forecasting time series data that assume values in the standard unit interval. It generalizes the class of beta…

Change points in real-world systems mark significant regime shifts in system dynamics, possibly triggered by exogenous or endogenous factors. These points define regimes for the time evolution of the system and are crucial for understanding…

This paper introduces a new approach for Multivariate Time Series forecasting that jointly infers and leverages relations among time series. Its modularity allows it to be integrated with current univariate methods. Our approach allows to…

We introduce a general class of autoregressive models for studying the dynamic of multivariate binary time series with stationary exogenous covariates. Using a high-level set of assumptions, we show that existence of a stationary path for…

We propose a multiscale approach to time series autoregression, in which linear regressors for the process in question include features of its own path that live on multiple timescales. We take these multiscale features to be the recent…

We revisit a model for time-varying linear regression that assumes the unknown parameters evolve according to a linear dynamical system. Counterintuitively, we show that when the underlying dynamics are stable the parameters of this model…

An autoregressive-moving average model in which all roots of the autoregressive polynomial are reciprocals of roots of the moving average polynomial and vice versa is called an all-pass time series model. All-pass models are useful for…

With the rapid advances of data acquisition techniques, spatio-temporal data are becoming increasingly abundant in a diverse array of disciplines. Here we develop spatio-temporal regression methodology for analyzing large amounts of…

Time series prediction with missing values is an important problem of time series analysis since complete data is usually hard to obtain in many real-world applications. To model the generation of time series, autoregressive (AR) model is a…

This paper develops computationally feasible methods for estimating random effects models in the context of regression modelling of multiple independent time series of discrete valued counts in which there is serial dependence. Given…

In this paper we consider a regression model that allows for time series covariates as well as heteroscedasticity with a regression function that is modelled nonparametrically. We assume that the regression function changes at some unknown…

A methodology is developed for the adjustment of the covariance matrices underlying a multivariate constant time series dynamic linear model. The covariance matrices are embedded in a distribution-free inner-product space of matrix objects…