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Structured variational inference constitutes a core methodology in modern statistical applications. Unlike mean-field variational inference, the approximate posterior is assumed to have interdependent structure. We consider the natural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-14 Shunan Sheng , Bohan Wu , Bennett Zhu , Sinho Chewi , Aram-Alexandre Pooladian

In sustained growth with random dynamics stationary distributions can exist without detailed balance. This suggests thermodynamical behavior in fast growing complex systems. In order to model such phenomena we apply both a discrete and a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-03-22 Tamás Biró , Zoltán Néda

High-dimensional multivariate time series are common in many scientific and industrial applications, where the interest lies in identifying key dependence structure within the data for subsequent analysis tasks, such as forecasting. An…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-15 Madeline A. Shelley , Chiara Boetti , Marina I. Knight , Matthew A. Nunes

Generative modeling of spatio-temporal fields is crucial for a variety of applications, including stochastic weather generators and climate-model surrogates. However, many such fields exhibit complex dependence structures that vary across…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-06 Carrie J. Lei-Cramer , Jian Cao , Matthias Katzfuss

We propose a flexible and robust nonparametric framework for testing spatial dependence in two- and three-dimensional random fields. Our approach involves converting spatial data into one-dimensional time series using space-filling Hilbert…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-20 Christian H. Weiß , Philipp Adämmer

Spatial connectivity is an important consideration when modelling infectious disease data across a geographical region. Connectivity can arise for many reasons, including shared characteristics between regions, and human or vector movement.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-06 Sophie A Lee , Theodoros Economou , Rachel Lowe

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are widely used as generic feature extractors, yet the notion of non-stationarity in their embedding spaces remains poorly understood. Recent work often conflates non-stationarity with distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Jinmyeong Choi , Brad Shook , Artur Dubrawski

Stationary time series models built from parametric distributions are, in general, limited in scope due to the assumptions imposed on the residual distribution and autoregression relationship. We present a modeling approach for univariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-04 Maria DeYoreo , Athanasios Kottas

Air pollution is a great concern because of its impact on human health and on the environment. Statistical models play an important role in improving knowledge of this complex spatio-temporal phenomenon and in supporting public agencies and…

Applications · Statistics 2015-03-17 Michela Cameletti , Rosaria Ignaccolo , Stefano Bande

The conceptualization of space is crucial for comprehending the processes that shape geographic phenomena. Functional space exhibits asymmetric spatial separations, which deviate from the symmetry axiom of metric space commonly adopted as a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-09-03 Bin Liu , Zhaoya Gong , Jean-Claude Thill

We introduce an extension of R-vine copula models for the purpose of spatial dependency modeling and model based prediction at unobserved locations. The newly derived spatial R-vine model combines the flexibility of vine copulas with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-17 Tobias Michael Erhardt , Claudia Czado , Ulf Schepsmeier

Spatial systems with heterogeneities are ubiquitous in nature, from precipitation, temperature and soil gradients controlling vegetation growth to morphogen gradients controlling gene expression in embryos. Such systems, generally described…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-05-10 Denis D. Patterson , Simon A. Levin , A. Carla Staver , Jonathan D. Touboul

A landfill represents a complex and dynamically evolving structure that can be stochastically perturbed by exogenous factors. Both thermodynamic (equilibrium) and time varying (non-steady state) properties of a landfill are affected by…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2016-06-06 Amit Kumar Chattopadhyay , Prasanta Kumar Dey , Sadhan Kumar Ghosh

Fine particulate matter (PM$_{2.5}$) has become a great concern worldwide due to its adverse health effects. PM$_{2.5}$ concentrations typically exhibit complex spatio-temporal variations. Both the mean and the spatio-temporal dependence…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-25 Ghulam A. Qadir , Ying Sun

In the analysis of multivariate spatial and univariate spatio-temporal data, it is commonly recognized that asymmetric dependence may exist, which can be addressed using an asymmetric (matrix or space-time, respectively) covariance function…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-29 Drew Yarger

Spatial fields in the Earth and environmental sciences are often available at multiple scales or resolutions. While coarse-scale data (e.g., from global circulation models) are often abundant, they lack the local detail provided by…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Alejandro Calle-Saldarriaga , Paul F. V. Wiemann , Matthias Katzfuss

Regression for spatially dependent outcomes poses many challenges, for inference and for computation. Non-spatial models and traditional spatial mixed-effects models each have their advantages and disadvantages, making it difficult for…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-02 John Hughes

Spatio-temporal processes in environmental applications are often assumed to follow a Gaussian model, possibly after some transformation. However, heterogeneity in space and time might have a pattern that will not be accommodated by…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-15 Thaís C. O. da Fonseca , Viviana G. R. Lobo , Alexandra M. Schmidt

Small area estimation has become an important tool in official statistics, used to construct estimates of population quantities for domains with small sample sizes. Typical area-level models function as a type of heteroscedastic regression,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-07 Paul A. Parker , Scott H. Holan , Ryan Janicki

Spatial documentation is exponentially increasing given the availability of Big IoT Data, enabled by the devices miniaturization and data storage capacity. Bayesian spatial statistics is a useful statistical tool to determine the dependence…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-01 Francisco Louzada , Diego C. Nascimento , Osafu Augustine Egbon
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