Related papers: A Flexible Commodity Skew Model with Maturity Effe…

We study the convergence properties of the short maturity expansion of option prices in the uncorrelated log-normal ($\beta=1$) SABR model. In this model the option time-value can be represented as an integral of the form $V(T) =…

We introduce a new stochastic duration model for transaction times in asset markets. We argue that widely accepted rules for aggregating seemingly related trades mislead inference pertaining to durations between unrelated trades: while any…

We consider a stochastic volatility model where the moment generating function of the logarithmic price is finite only on part of the real line. Using a new Tauberian result obtained in [1] and [2], we show that the knowledge of the moment…

We develop a model for the dynamic evolution of default-free and defaultable interest rates in a LIBOR framework. Utilizing the class of affine processes, this model produces positive LIBOR rates and spreads, while the dynamics are…

This article presents an empirical study of thirteen derivative markets for commodity and financial assets. It compares the statistical properties of futures contracts's daily returns at different maturities, from 1998 to 2010 and for…

We consider a stochastic volatility model where the dynamics of the volatility are given by a possibly infinite linear combination of the elements of the time extended signature of a Brownian motion. First, we show that the model is…

To make medium- and long-term insurance products attractive, it is essential to enable participation in stock market returns. However, to eliminate downside risk, guarantees must be included, which naturally leads to the challenge of…

We present a multivariate stochastic volatility model with leverage, which is flexible enough to recapture the individual dynamics as well as the interdependencies between several assets while still being highly analytically tractable.…

In the analysis of commodity futures, it is commonly assumed that futures prices are driven by two latent factors: short-term fluctuations and long-term equilibrium price levels. In this study, we extend this framework by introducing a…

Spot option prices, forwards and options on forwards relevant for the commodity markets are computed when the underlying process S is modelled as an exponential of a process {\xi} with memory as e.g. a L\'evy semi-stationary process.…

We present a new volatility model, simple to implement, that includes a leverage effect whose return-volatility correlation function fits to empirical observations. This model is able to capture both the "retarded effect" induced by the…

We consider asset price models whose dynamics are described by linear functions of the (time extended) signature of a primary underlying process, which can range from a (market-inferred) Brownian motion to a general multidimensional…

We revisit the problem of pricing options with historical volatility estimators. We do this in the context of a generalized GARCH model with multiple time scales and asymmetry. It is argued that the reason for the observed volatility risk…

We develop Edgeworth expansion theory for spot volatility estimator under general assumptions on the log-price process that allow for drift and leverage effect. The result is based on further estimation of skewness and kurtosis, when…

We adapt the interactive spline model of Wahba to growth curves with covariates. The smoothing spline formulation permits a non-parametric representation of the growth curves. In the limit when the discretization error is small relative to…

We study U.S. Treasury yield curve forecasting under distributional uncertainty and recast forecasting as an operations research and managerial decision problem. Rather than minimizing average forecast error, the forecaster selects a…

We derive the short-maturity asymptotics for prices of options on realized variance in local-stochastic volatility models. We consider separately the short-maturity asymptotics for out-of-the-money and in-the-money options cases. The…

This paper advances interest rate modeling in the post-LIBOR era by introducing rough stochastic volatility into the Forward Market Model (FMM). We establish a rigorous asymptotic expansion of swaption implied volatility, connecting the FMM…

This paper studies the model risk of the Black-Scholes (BS) model in pricing and risk-managing variable annuities motivated by its wide usage in the insurance industry. Specifically, we derive a model-free decomposition of the no-arbitrage…

Generating realistic synthetic option prices requires implied volatility as an input, yet implied volatility is itself derived from observed option prices, creating a circular dependency that limits synthetic data for machine-learning and…