English
Related papers

Related papers: Scalable Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for N…

200 papers

It is critical that machine learning (ML) model predictions be trustworthy for high-throughput catalyst discovery approaches. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods allow estimation of the trustworthiness of an ML model, but these methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Cameron Gruich , Varun Madhavan , Yixin Wang , Bryan Goldsmith

Accounting for the uncertainty in the predictions of modern neural networks is a challenging and important task in many domains. Existing algorithms for uncertainty estimation require modifying the model architecture and training procedure…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-09 Alexander Fishkov , Maxim Panov

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a promising framework for modeling predictive uncertainty and enhancing out-of-distribution robustness (OOD) by estimating the posterior distribution of network parameters. Stochastic Gradient Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Hyunsu Kim , Giung Nam , Chulhee Yun , Hongseok Yang , Juho Lee

Techniques from artificial intelligence and machine learning are increasingly employed in nuclear theory, however, the uncertainties that arise from the complex parameter manifold encoded by the neural networks are often overlooked.…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2025-10-29 Mengyao Huang , Kyle A. Wendt , Nicolas F. Schunck , Erika M. Holmbeck

Deep learning has been successfully applied to the segmentation of 3D Computed Tomography (CT) scans. Establishing the credibility of these segmentations requires uncertainty quantification (UQ) to identify untrustworthy predictions. Recent…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-04-03 Tyler LaBonte , Carianne Martinez , Scott A. Roberts

We present a comparison of methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning algorithms in the context of a simple physical system. Three of the most common uncertainty quantification methods - Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-08 João Caldeira , Brian Nord

Predicting the future frames of a video is a challenging task, in part due to the underlying stochastic real-world phenomena. Prior approaches to solve this task typically estimate a latent prior characterizing this stochasticity, however…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-10-08 Moitreya Chatterjee , Narendra Ahuja , Anoop Cherian

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer robust uncertainty quantification in model predictions, but training them presents a significant computational challenge. This is mainly due to the problem of sampling multimodal posterior distributions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Ratneel Deo , Scott Sisson , Jody M. Webster , Rohitash Chandra

We analyze an ensemble-based approach for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in atomistic neural networks. This method generates an epistemic uncertainty signal without requiring changes to the underlying multi-headed regression neural network…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-11-21 Idan Fonea , Amir Peles , Sivan Niv , Goren Gordon , Amir Natan

Bayesian methods hold significant promise for improving the uncertainty quantification ability and robustness of deep neural network models. Recent research has seen the investigation of a number of approximate Bayesian inference methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-09 Meet P. Vadera , Adam D. Cobb , Brian Jalaian , Benjamin M. Marlin

The high dimensionality of kinetic equations with stochastic parameters poses major computational challenges for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Traditional Monte Carlo (MC) sampling methods, while widely used, suffer from slow convergence…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-13 Wei Chen , Giacomo Dimarco , Lorenzo Pareschi

Deep learning is gaining increasing popularity for spatiotemporal forecasting. However, prior works have mostly focused on point estimates without quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. In high stakes domains, being able to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-06-15 Dongxia Wu , Liyao Gao , Xinyue Xiong , Matteo Chinazzi , Alessandro Vespignani , Yi-An Ma , Rose Yu

Even though Bayesian neural networks offer a promising framework for modeling uncertainty, active learning and incorporating prior physical knowledge, few applications of them can be found in the context of interatomic force modeling. One…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-04-10 Tim Rensmeyer , Benjamin Craig , Denis Kramer , Oliver Niggemann

If Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is crucial to achieve trustworthy Machine Learning (ML), most UQ methods suffer from disparate and inconsistent evaluation protocols. We claim this inconsistency results from the unclear requirements the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-28 Victor Bouvier , Simona Maggio , Alexandre Abraham , Léo Dreyfus-Schmidt

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Marzieh Ajirak , Anand Ravishankar , Petar M. Djuric

Quantifying the uncertainty in model parameters and output is a critical component in model-driven decision support systems for groundwater management. This paper presents a novel algorithmic approach which fuses Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-26 Mikkel B. Lykkegaard , Tim J. Dodwell , David Moxey

With the increased prevalence of neural operators being used to provide rapid solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs), understanding the accuracy of model predictions and the associated error levels is necessary for deploying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Nick Winovich , Mitchell Daneker , Lu Lu , Guang Lin

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a pivotal role in scientific machine learning, especially when surrogate models are used to approximate complex systems. Although multilayer perceptions (MLPs) are commonly employed as surrogates, they…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-01-22 Zhiwei Gao , George Em Karniadakis

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are promising surrogates for quantum mechanical calculations as they establish unprecedented low errors on collections of molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories. Thanks to their fast inference times they promise…

Neural network (NN) interatomic potentials provide fast prediction of potential energy surfaces, closely matching the accuracy of the electronic structure methods used to produce the training data. However, NN predictions are only reliable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-31 Daniel Schwalbe-Koda , Aik Rui Tan , Rafael Gómez-Bombarelli