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In this paper we construct an inferential procedure for Granger causality in high-dimensional non-stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our method does not require knowledge of the order of integration of the time series under…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-09-18 Alain Hecq , Luca Margaritella , Stephan Smeekes

This paper addresses the statistical estimation of Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) with unknown diagonal covariances from independent and identically distributed samples. We employ the Beurling-LASSO (BLASSO), a convex optimization framework…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-14 Romane Giard , Yohann de Castro , Clément Marteau

We introduce a methodology for nonlinear inverse problems using a variational Bayesian approach where the unknown quantity is a spatial field. A structured Bayesian Gaussian process latent variable model is used both to construct a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-20 Steven Atkinson , Nicholas Zabaras

Stochastic spectral methods have achieved great success in the uncertainty quantification of many engineering problems, including electronic and photonic integrated circuits influenced by fabrication process variations. Existing techniques…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-12-06 Chunfeng Cui , Zheng Zhang

Gaussian process regression is a powerful Bayesian nonlinear regression method. Recent research has enabled the capture of many types of observations using non-Gaussian likelihoods. To deal with various tasks in spatial modeling, we benefit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-26 Yuta Shikuri

We develop flexible methods of deriving variational inference for models with complex latent variable structure. By splitting the variables in these models into "global" parameters and "local" latent variables, we define a class of…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-23 Linda S. L. Tan , Aishwarya Bhaskaran , David J. Nott

Gaussian graphical models, where it is assumed that the variables of interest jointly follow a multivariate normal distribution with a sparse precision matrix, have been used to study intrinsic dependence among variables, but the normality…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-20 Jami J. Mulgrave , Subhashis Ghosal

Modeling data with non-stationary covariance structure is important to represent heterogeneity in geophysical and other environmental spatial processes. In this work, we investigate a multistage approach to modeling non-stationary…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-05 Ashton Wiens , Douglas Nychka , William Kleibe

We use the delta N -formalism to investigate the non-Gaussianity of the primordial curvature perturbation in the curvaton scenario for the origin of structure. We numerically calculate the full probability distribution function allowing for…

Astrophysics · Physics 2010-04-06 Misao Sasaki , Jussi Valiviita , David Wands

Model checking is essential to evaluate the adequacy of statistical models and the validity of inferences drawn from them. Particularly, hierarchical models such as latent Gaussian models (LGMs) pose unique challenges as it is difficult to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-25 Rafael Cabral , David Bolin , Håvard Rue

Model uncertainty quantification is an essential component of effective data assimilation. Model errors associated with sub-grid scale processes are often represented through stochastic parameterizations of the unresolved process. Many…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-13 Sahani Pathiraja , Peter Jan van Leeuwen

We develop two methods for the following fundamental statistical task: given an $\epsilon$-corrupted set of $n$ samples from a $d$-dimensional sub-Gaussian distribution, return an approximate top eigenvector of the covariance matrix. Our…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-06-15 Arun Jambulapati , Jerry Li , Kevin Tian

Bayesian nonparametric regression under a rescaled Gaussian process prior offers smoothness-adaptive function estimation with near minimax-optimal error rates. Hierarchical extensions of this approach, equipped with stochastic variable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-15 Sheng Jiang , Surya T. Tokdar

We consider the problem of learning causal models from observational data generated by linear non-Gaussian acyclic causal models with latent variables. Without considering the effect of latent variables, one usually infers wrong causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-13 Saber Salehkaleybar , AmirEmad Ghassami , Negar Kiyavash , Kun Zhang

Over the past decade, characterizing the exact asymptotic risk of regularized estimators in high-dimensional regression has emerged as a popular line of work. This literature considers the proportional asymptotics framework, where the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-02 Samriddha Lahiry , Pragya Sur

The statistical matching problem is a data integration problem with structured missing data. The general form involves the analysis of multiple datasets that only have a strict subset of variables jointly observed across all datasets. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-01 Daniel Ahfock , Saumyadipta Pyne , Geoffrey J. McLachlan

High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models have numerous applications in fields such as econometrics, biology, climatology, among others. While prior research has mainly focused on linear VAR models, these approaches can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Yuefeng Han , Likai Chen , Wei Biao Wu

Parameter identification and comparison of dynamical systems is a challenging task in many fields. Bayesian approaches based on Gaussian process regression over time-series data have been successfully applied to infer the parameters of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Philippe Wenk , Alkis Gotovos , Stefan Bauer , Nico Gorbach , Andreas Krause , Joachim M. Buhmann

Non-Gaussian component analysis (NGCA) is a problem in multidimensional data analysis which, since its formulation in 2006, has attracted considerable attention in statistics and machine learning. In this problem, we have a random variable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-25 Navin Goyal , Abhishek Shetty

Variational approximation methods have proven to be useful for scaling Bayesian computations to large data sets and highly parametrized models. Applying variational methods involves solving an optimization problem, and recent research in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-13 Victor M. -H. Ong , David J. Nott , Michael S. Smith
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