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Most of the widely used estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) in causal inference rely on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap. Unconfoundedness requires that the observed covariates account for all correlations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Yang Cai , Alkis Kalavasis , Katerina Mamali , Anay Mehrotra , Manolis Zampetakis

Randomized clinical trials typically aim to estimate a marginal treatment effect. While covariate adjustment can improve precision, it may change the estimand in nonlinear models due to noncollapsibility, leading to conditional rather than…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-25 Leticia Wuethrich , Torsten Hothorn

We consider the setting in which a strong binary instrument is available for a binary treatment. The traditional LATE approach assumes the monotonicity condition stating that there are no defiers (or compliers). Since this condition is not…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-03-25 Yinchu Zhu

Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation, at the heart of counterfactual reasoning, is a crucial challenge for causal modeling both theoretically and applicatively, in domains such as healthcare, sociology, or advertising.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-27 Armand Lacombe , Michèle Sebag

Treatment effect heterogeneity is of a great concern when evaluating policy impact: "is the treatment Pareto-improving?", "what is the proportion of people who are better off under the treatment?", etc. However, even in the simple case of a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-18 Myungkou Shin

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often suffer from limited inferential efficiency in estimating treatment effects due to their small sample sizes. In recent years, incorporating external controls (ECs) has gained increasing attention as…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-16 Qinwei Yang , Jingyi Li , Peng Wu , Shu Yang

Estimating treatment effects conditional on observed covariates can improve the ability to tailor treatments to particular individuals. Doing so effectively requires dealing with potential confounding, and also enough data to adequately…

The distribution of treatment effects (DTE) is often of interest in the context of welfare policy evaluation. In this paper, I consider partial identification of the DTE under known marginal distributions and support restrictions on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-23 Ju Hyun Kim

Non-negative two-part outcomes are defined as outcomes with a density function that have a zero point mass but are otherwise positive. Examples, such as healthcare expenditure and hospital length of stay, are common in healthcare…

The conditional tail average treatment effect (CTATE) is defined as a difference between the conditional tail expectations of potential outcomes, which can capture heterogeneity and deliver aggregated local information on treatment effects…

Applications · Statistics 2024-05-21 Le-Yu Chen , Yu-Min Yen

In most medical research, the average treatment effect is used to evaluate a treatment's performance. However, precision medicine requires knowledge of individual treatment effects: What is the difference between a unit's measurement under…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-30 Mingyang Cai , Stef van Buuren , Gerko Vink

Estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from observational data is relevant for many applications such as personalized medicine. Here, we focus on the widespread setting where the observational data come from multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Jonas Schweisthal , Dennis Frauen , Mihaela van der Schaar , Stefan Feuerriegel

Investigators are often interested in how a treatment affects an outcome for units responding to treatment in a certain way. We may wish to know the effect among units that, for example, meaningfully implemented an intervention, passed an…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Chad Hazlett , Nina McMurry , Tanvi Shinkre

Covariate adjustment is a ubiquitous method used to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) from observational data. Assuming a known graphical structure of the data generating model, recent results give graphical criteria for optimal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-08 Alexander Mangulad Christgau , Anton Rask Lundborg , Niels Richard Hansen

Statisticians show growing interest in estimating and analyzing heterogeneity in causal effects in observational studies. However, there usually exists a trade-off between accuracy and interpretability for developing a desirable estimator…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-26 Steven Siwei Ye , Yanzhen Chen , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

This paper introduces R-OLS, an estimator for the average partial effect (APE) of a continuous treatment variable on an outcome variable in the presence of non-linear and non-additively separable confounding of unknown form. Identification…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-17 Julius Schäper

Estimating average treatment effects from observational data is challenging under practical violations of the positivity assumption. Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimators (TMLEs) are widely used because of their double robustness and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Yichen Xu , Susan Gruber , Mark J. van der Laan

To estimate the dynamic effects of an absorbing treatment, researchers often use two-way fixed effects regressions that include leads and lags of the treatment. We show that in settings with variation in treatment timing across units, the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-09-24 Liyang Sun , Sarah Abraham

In this paper, we consider estimation of average treatment effect on the treated (ATT), an interpretable and relevant causal estimand to policy makers when treatment assignment is endogenous. By considering shadow variables that are…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-21 Trinetri Ghosh , Jiawei Shan , Menggang Yu , Jiwei Zhao

In randomized experiments, the actual treatments received by some experimental units may differ from their treatment assignments. This non-compliance issue often occurs in clinical trials, social experiments, and the applications of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-19 Jiyang Ren