Related papers: Nostradamus: Weathering Worth
In this paper, we survey recent econometric contributions to measure the relationship between economic activity and climate change. Due to the critical relevance of these effects for the well-being of future generations, there is an…
This paper discusses a novel explanation for asymmetric volatility based on the anchoring behavioral pattern. Anchoring as a heuristic bias causes investors focusing on recent price changes and price levels, which two lead to a belief in…
Climate statistics is of course a very broad field, along with the many connections and impacts for yet other areas, with a history as long as mankind has been recording temperatures, describing drastic weather events, etc. The important…
We consider the randomness of market trade as the origin of price and return stochasticity. We look at time series of trade values and volumes as random variables during the averaging interval {\Delta} and describe the dependences of…
We discovered that past changes in the market correlation structure are significantly related with future changes in the market volatility. By using correlation-based information filtering networks we device a new tool for forecasting the…
Most finance studies are discussed on the basis of several hypotheses, for example, investors rationally optimize their investment strategies. However, the hypotheses themselves are sometimes criticized. Market impacts, where trades of…
The behavior of complex systems is one of the most intriguing phenomena investigated by recent science; natural and artificial systems offer a wide opportunity for this kind of analysis. The energy conversion is both a process based on…
Financial empirical correlation matrices of all the companies which both, the Deutsche Aktienindex (DAX) and the Dow Jones comprised during the time period 1990-1999 are studied using a time window of a limited, either 30 or 60, number of…
We analyse four consecutive cycles observed in the USA for employment and inflation. They are driven by three oil price shocks and an intended interest rate shock. Non-linear coupling between the rate equations for consumer products as prey…
In order to emphasize cross-correlations for fluctuations in major market places, series of up and down spins are built from financial data. Patterns frequencies are measured, and statistical tests performed. Strong cross-correlations are…
In a highly interdependent economic world, the nature of relationships between financial entities is becoming an increasingly important area of study. Recently, many studies have shown the usefulness of minimal spanning trees (MST) in…
Mapping pathways to achieving the sustainable development goals requires understanding and predicting how social, economic and political factors impact biodiversity. Trends in demography, economic growth, regional alliances and consumption…
The financial industry poses great challenges with risk modeling and profit generation. These entities are intricately tied to the sophisticated prediction of stock movements. A stock forecaster must untangle the randomness and…
We investigate financial market correlations using random matrix theory and principal component analysis. We use random matrix theory to demonstrate that correlation matrices of asset price changes contain structure that is incompatible…
An annual well-being index constructed from thirteen socioeconomic factors is proposed in order to dynamically measure the mood of the US citizenry. Econometric models are fitted to the log-returns of the index in order to quantify its tail…
We investigate possible origins of trends using a deterministic threshold model, where we refer to long-term variabilities of price changes (price movements) in financial markets as trends. From the investigation we find two phenomena. One…
Forest fires are the outcome of a complex interaction between environmental factors, topography and socioeconomic factors (Bedia et al, 2014). Therefore, understand causality and early prediction are crucial elements for controlling such…
Most research questions in agricultural and applied economics are of a causal nature, i.e., how one or more variables (e.g., policies, prices, the weather) affect one or more other variables (e.g., income, crop yields, pollution). Only some…
It has been shown that financial news leads to the fluctuation of stock prices. However, previous work on news-driven financial market prediction focused only on predicting stock price movement without providing an explanation. In this…
In the present paper a model of a market consisting of real and financial interacting sectors is studied. Agents populating the stock market are assumed to be not able to observe the true underlying fundamental, and their beliefs are biased…