Related papers: Robust Relationship Between Mid-latitudes CAPE and…
Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is of strong interest in climate modeling because of its role in both severe weather and in model construction. Extreme levels of CAPE ($>$ 2000 J/kg) are associated with high-impact weather…
The effect of warming on severe convective storm potential is commonly explained in terms of changes in vertically-integrated ("bulk") environmental parameters, such as CAPE and 0--6 km shear. However, such events are known to depend on…
Precipitation extremes produced by convection have been found to intensify with near-surface temperatures at a Clausius-Clapeyron rate of $6$ to $7\%$ K$^{-1}$ in simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). However, these…
This article introduces an analytic formula for entraining convective available potential energy (ECAPE) with an entrainment rate that is determined directly from the storm environment. Extending previous formulas derived in Peters et al.…
Idealized convection-permitting simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) have become a popular tool for understanding the physical processes leading to horizontal variability of tropical water vapor and rainfall. However, the…
In order to explore the effects of climate change on atmospheric convection and the water cycle, we develop and analyse an extension of the Rainy-B\'enard model, which is itself a moist version of the Rayleigh-B\'enard model of dry…
Atmospheric moist available potential energy (MAPE) has been traditionally defined as the potential energy of a moist atmosphere relative to that of the adiabatically sorted reference state defining a global potential energy minimum.…
To elucidate how land surface state and soil moisture dynamics regulate moist convection, and how convective rainfall subsequently reshapes surface and root-zone hydrology, we develop a stochastic dynamical model that couples soil moisture,…
Tropical precipitation extremes are expected to strengthen with warming, but quantitative estimates remain uncertain because of a poor understanding of changes in convective dynamics. This uncertainty is addressed here by analyzing…
In a recent paper, Romps (JAS, vol.72, p.3639-3646, 2015, hereafter R15) argues that the moist-air static energy (MSE) is only approximately conserved for an adiabatically lifted parcel, and that the quantity "MSE - CAPE" could be used as a…
Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is an important variable for forecasting severe weather and understanding deep convection and precipitation. The latest versions of the Global Forecast System (GFS) and related Global Ensemble…
Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting in edge-enabled grids requires balancing forecasting accuracy, robustness under weather-driven distribution shifts, and strict latency constraints. Existing models work well under normal conditions but…
Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are crucial components of the hydrological cycle and often produce flash floods. Given their impact, it is crucial to understand how they will change under a warming climate. This study uses a satellite-…
Climate models are thought to solve boundary value problems unlike numerical weather prediction, which is an initial value problem. However, climate internal variability (CIV) is thought to be relatively important at near-term (0-30 year)…
The land-atmosphere coupling strength has been defined as the percentage of precipitation variability explained by the variation of soil moisture in the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE). While it is useful to identify…
The product of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and precipitation rate has previously been used as a proxy for cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash counts in climate change applications. Here the ability of this proxy, denoted…
A great body of research literature pertaining to microburst generation in convective storms has focused on thermodynamic factors of the pre-convective environment as well as storm morphology as observed by radar imagery. Derived products…
We extend the local theory of available potential energy (APE) to a general multicomponent compressible stratified fluid, accounting for the effects of diabatic sinks and sources. As for simple compressible fluids, the total potential…
Extreme near-surface moist heat and severe convective storms are among the leading causes of weather-related damages worldwide. Here, we show that episodes of extreme moist heat and severe convection frequently co-occur across midlatitude…
Understanding future changes in temperature variability and extremes is an important scientific challenge with societal impacts. Here the responses of daily near-surface temperature distributions to climate warming is explored using an…