Related papers: Neural Continuous-Time Markov Models

Exact stochastic simulation of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) is essential when discreteness and noise drive system behavior, but the hard categorical event selection in Gillespie-type algorithms blocks gradient-based learning. We…

Markov chains are a class of probabilistic models that have achieved widespread application in the quantitative sciences. This is in part due to their versatility, but is compounded by the ease with which they can be probed analytically.…

In this paper we study Monte Carlo estimators based on the likelihood ratio approach for steady-state sensitivity. We first extend the result of Glynn and Olvera-Cravioto [doi:doi: 10.1287/stsy.2018.002] to the setting of continuous time…

Consider the standard stochastic reaction network model where the dynamics is given by a continuous-time Markov chain over a discrete lattice. For such models, estimation of parameter sensitivities is an important problem, but the existing…

We propose a new stochastic model for biological neural nets which is a continuous time version of the model proposed by Galves and L\"ocherbach in [A. Galves and E. L\"ocherbach, "Infinite systems of interacting chains with memory of…

In this work we present a modified neural network model which is capable to simulate Markov Chains. We show how to express and train such a network, how to ensure given statistical properties reflected in the training data and we…

Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks are continuous time Markov chain models that describe the time evolution of the molecular counts of species interacting stochastically via discrete reactions. Such models are ubiquitous in systems and…

Fluid approximations have seen great success in approximating the macro-scale behaviour of Markov systems with a large number of discrete states. However, these methods rely on the continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) having a particular…

A general theory is developed to study individual based models which are discrete in time. We begin by constructing a Markov chain model that converges to a one-dimensional map in the infinite population limit. Stochastic fluctuations are…

In this paper we survey recent work on the use of statistical model checking techniques for biological applications. We begin with an overview of the basic modelling techniques for biochemical reactions and their corresponding stochastic…

We consider a simple discrete-time Markov chain with values in $[0,\infty)^{Z^d}$. The Markov chain describes various interesting examples such as oriented percolation, directed polymers in random environment, time discretizations of binary…

This paper motivates the use of random-bridges -- stochastic processes conditioned to take target distributions at fixed timepoints -- in the realm of generative modelling. Herein, random-bridges can act as stochastic transports between two…

We develop an approach for Bayesian learning of spatiotemporal dynamical mechanistic models. Such learning consists of statistical emulation of the mechanistic system that can efficiently interpolate the output of the system from arbitrary…

Chemical reaction networks describe interactions between biochemical species. Once an underlying reaction network is given for a biochemical system, the system dynamics can be modelled with various mathematical frameworks such as continuous…

In this study, we introduce a sensitivity analysis methodology for stochastic systems in chemistry, where dynamics are often governed by random processes. Our approach is based on gradient estimation via finite differences, averaging…

We consider a stochastic fluid queue served by a constant rate server and driven by a process which is the local time of a certain Markov process. Such a stochastic system can be used as a model in a priority service system, especially when…

Analyses of serially-sampled data often begin with the assumption that the observations represent discrete samples from a latent continuous-time stochastic process. The continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) is one such generative model whose…

Many random processes can be simulated as the output of a deterministic model accepting random inputs. Such a model usually describes a complex mathematical or physical stochastic system and the randomness is introduced in the input…

Traditional methods for unsupervised learning of finite mixture models require to evaluate the likelihood of all components of the mixture. This becomes computationally prohibitive when the number of components is large, as it is, for…

Markov jump processes (or continuous-time Markov chains) are a simple and important class of continuous-time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of simulating from the posterior distribution over paths in these models,…