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We present a nonparametric framework to model a short sequence of probability distributions that vary both due to underlying effects of sequential progression and confounding noise. To distinguish between these two types of variation and…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-08 Jonas Mueller , Tommi Jaakkola , David Gifford

We consider statistical inference in the density estimation model using a tree-based Bayesian approach, with Optional P\'olya trees as prior distribution. We derive near-optimal convergence rates for corresponding posterior distributions…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-12 Ismaël Castillo , Thibault Randrianarisoa

In this paper we propose a general method to derive an upper bound for the contraction rate of the posterior distribution for nonparametric inverse problems. We present a general theorem that allows us to derive con- traction rates for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-24 Bartek Knapik , Jean-Bernard Salomond

Inverse probability weighted estimators are the oldest and potentially most commonly used class of procedures for the estimation of causal effects. By adjusting for selection biases via a weighting mechanism, these procedures estimate an…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-06 Ashkan Ertefaie , Nima S. Hejazi , Mark J. van der Laan

We consider a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimate the diffusion coefficient of a stochastic differential equation given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval. As a prior on the diffusion coefficient, we employ a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-22 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer , Peter Spreij

This paper develops a new framework for indirect statistical inference with guaranteed necessity and sufficiency, applicable to continuous random variables. We prove that when comparing exponentially transformed order statistics from an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-25 Z Zhang , X Hu , C Lu , T Liu

Motivated by the need to analyze continuously updated data sets in the context of time-to-event modeling, we propose a novel nonparametric approach to estimate the conditional hazard function given a set of continuous and discrete…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-03 Daphné Aurouet , Valentin Patilea

The classical condition on the existence of uniformly exponentially consistent tests for testing the true density against the complement of its arbitrary neighborhood has been widely adopted in study of asymptotics of Bayesian nonparametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-01 Yang Xing

This paper proposes a nonparametric test for $m$th-degree inverse stochastic dominance which is a powerful tool for ranking distribution functions according to social welfare. We construct the test based on empirical process theory. The…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-07-18 Hongyi Jiang , Zhenting Sun , Shiyun Hu

Epidemiologic studies and clinical trials with a survival outcome are often challenged by immortal time (IMT), a period of follow-up during which the survival outcome cannot occur because of the observed later treatment initiation. It has…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-08 Jiping Wang , Peter Peduzzi , Michael Wininger , Shuangge Ma

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection aims at enhancing standard deep neural networks to distinguish anomalous inputs from original training data. Previous progress has introduced various approaches where the in-distribution training data and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-20 Jinggang Chen , Xiaoyang Qu , Junjie Li , Jianzong Wang , Jiguang Wan , Jing Xiao

This paper examines the distribution of order statistics taken from simple-random-sampling without replacement (SRSWOR) from a finite population with values 1,...,N. This distribution is a shifted version of the beta-binomial distribution,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-01 Ben O'Neill

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is essential for the reliability of ML models. Most existing methods for OOD detection learn a fixed decision criterion from a given in-distribution dataset and apply it universally to decide if a data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-29 YiFan Zhang , Xue Wang , Tian Zhou , Kun Yuan , Zhang Zhang , Liang Wang , Rong Jin , Tieniu Tan

We study the convergence rates of empirical Bayes posterior distributions for nonparametric and high-dimensional inference. We show that as long as the hyperparameter set is discrete, the empirical Bayes posterior distribution induced by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-10 Fengshuo Zhang , Chao Gao

Desirability Of Outcome Ranking (DOOR) methodology accounts for problems that conventional benefit:risk analyses in clinical trials ignore, such as competing risks and the trade-off relationship between efficacy and toxicity. DOOR levels…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-19 Shiyu Shu , Guoqing Diao , Toshimitsu Hamasaki , Scott Evans

In recent years, machine learning models have achieved success based on the independently and identically distributed assumption. However, this assumption can be easily violated in real-world applications, leading to the Out-of-Distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-27 Yifan Hao , Yong Lin , Difan Zou , Tong Zhang

We consider the nonparametric estimation of the intensity function of a Poisson point process in a circular model from indirect observations $N_1,\ldots,N_n$. These observations emerge from hidden point process realizations with the target…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-19 Martin Kroll

We study covariate shift in the context of nonparametric regression. We introduce a new measure of distribution mismatch between the source and target distributions that is based on the integrated ratio of probabilities of balls at a given…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-08 Reese Pathak , Cong Ma , Martin J. Wainwright

The paper develops new methods of non-parametric estimation a compound Poisson distribution. Such a problem arise, in particular, in the inference of a Levy process recorded at equidistant time intervals. Our key estimator is based on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-19 Alexey Lindo , Sergei Zuyev , Serik Sagitov

While the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) is a commonly used approach for treatment comparisons in observational data, the resulting estimates may be subject to bias and excessively large variance when there is lack of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-13 Zhiqiang Cao , Lama Ghazi , Claudia Mastrogiacomo , Laura Forastiere , F. Perry Wilson , Fan Li