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As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated in diverse applications, obtaining reliable measures of their predictive uncertainty has become critically important. A precise distinction between aleatoric uncertainty, arising…

Astronomical data often suffer from noise and incompleteness. We extend the common mixtures-of-Gaussians density estimation approach to account for situations with a known sample incompleteness by simultaneous imputation from the current…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-09-17 Peter Melchior , Andy D. Goulding

This paper investigates a channel estimator based on Gaussian mixture models (GMMs). We fit a GMM to given channel samples to obtain an analytic probability density function (PDF) which approximates the true channel PDF. Then, a conditional…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Michael Koller , Benedikt Fesl , Nurettin Turan , Wolfgang Utschick

Modeling data uncertainty is important for noisy images, but seldom explored for face recognition. The pioneer work, PFE, considers uncertainty by modeling each face image embedding as a Gaussian distribution. It is quite effective.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-03-26 Jie Chang , Zhonghao Lan , Changmao Cheng , Yichen Wei

Deep learning models are being adopted and applied on various critical decision-making tasks, yet they are trained to provide point predictions without providing degrees of confidence. The trustworthiness of deep learning models can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Daniel Nolte , Souparno Ghosh , Ranadip Pal

This paper addresses a significant gap in explainable AI: the necessity of interpreting epistemic uncertainty in model explanations. Although current methods mainly focus on explaining predictions, with some including uncertainty, they fail…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Helena Löfström , Tuwe Löfström , Johan Hallberg Szabadvary

It is highly desirable to know how uncertain a model's predictions are, especially for models that are complex and hard to understand as in deep learning. Although there has been a growing interest in using deep learning methods in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Davood Karimi , Simon K. Warfield , Ali Gholipour

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Marzieh Ajirak , Anand Ravishankar , Petar M. Djuric

Uncertainty estimation is important for deploying LLMs in high-stakes applications such as healthcare and finance, where hallucinations can appear fluent and plausible while being factually incorrect, making it difficult for users to judge…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Mingcheng Zhu , Yu Liu , Tingting Zhu

Contextual optimization enhances decision quality by leveraging side information to improve predictions of uncertain parameters. However, existing approaches face significant challenges when dealing with multimodal or mixtures of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-19 YoungChul Yoon , Grani A. Hanasusanto , Yijie Wang

We propose a novel iterative algorithm for estimating a deterministic but unknown parameter vector in the presence of model uncertainties. This iterative algorithm is based on a system model where an overall noise term describes both, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-27 Oliver Lang , Michael Lunglmayr , Mario Huemer

Precise estimation of predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks is a critical requirement for reliable decision-making in machine learning and statistical modeling, particularly in the context of medical AI. Conformal Prediction (CP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-05 Hamed Karimi , Reza Samavi

In model-free deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms, using noisy value estimates to supervise policy evaluation and optimization is detrimental to the sample efficiency. As this noise is heteroscedastic, its effects can be mitigated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-04 Vincent Mai , Kaustubh Mani , Liam Paull

We propose Uni-ArrayDPS, a novel diffusion-based refinement framework for unified multi-channel speech enhancement and separation. Existing methods for multi-channel speech enhancement/separation are mostly discriminative and are highly…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-27 Zhongweiyang Xu , Ashutosh Pandey , Juan Azcarreta , Zhaoheng Ni , Sanjeel Parekh , Buye Xu , Romit Roy Choudhury

Despite the significant improvements in speaker recognition enabled by deep neural networks, unsatisfactory performance persists under noisy environments. In this paper, we train the speaker embedding network to learn the "clean" embedding…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-02-14 Danwei Cai , Weicheng Cai , Ming Li

Many methods have been proposed to quantify the predictive uncertainty associated with the outputs of deep neural networks. Among them, ensemble methods often lead to state-of-the-art results, though they require modifications to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-11 Zhiyun Lu , Eugene Ie , Fei Sha

Accurately estimating semantic aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in large language models (LLMs) is particularly challenging in free-form question answering (QA), where obtaining stable estimates often requires many expensive…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-26 Ji Won Park , Kyunghyun Cho

Confidence estimation can improve the reliability of melody estimation by indicating which predictions are likely incorrect. The existing classification-based approach provides confidence for predicted pitch classes but fails to capture the…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-07 Kavya Ranjan Saxena , Vipul Arora

Computer vision leveraging deep learning has achieved significant success in the last decade. Despite the promising performance of the existing deep models in the recent literature, the extent of models' reliability remains unknown.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-04-13 Seyed Omid Sajedi , Xiao Liang

Accurately estimating uncertainties in neural network predictions is of great importance in building trusted DNNs-based models, and there is an increasing interest in providing accurate uncertainty estimation on many tasks, such as security…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Yukun Ding , Jinglan Liu , Jinjun Xiong , Yiyu Shi