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Electricity price forecasting is an essential task in all the deregulated markets of the world. The accurate prediction of the day-ahead electricity prices is an active research field and available data from various markets can be used as…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-18 Salih Gunduz , Umut Ugurlu , Ilkay Oksuz

Electricity markets are changing, driven by large-scale renewable integration and rising demand from electrification and digitalisation. This raises fundamental questions about how electricity prices form as the relationships among key…

General Economics · Economics 2026-04-17 Shiva Madadkhani , Nils Sturma , Mathias Drton , Svetlana Ikonnikova

Virtual bidding plays an important role in two-settlement electric power markets, as it can reduce discrepancies between day-ahead and real-time markets. Renewable energy penetration increases volatility in electricity prices, making…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Xuesong Wang , Sharaf K. Magableh , Oraib Dawaghreh , Caisheng Wang , Jiaxuan Gong , Zhongyang Zhao , Michael H. Liao

Forecasting electricity prices is a challenging task and an active area of research since the 1990s and the deregulation of the traditionally monopolistic and government-controlled power sectors. Although it aims at predicting both spot and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-23 Katarzyna Maciejowska , Bartosz Uniejewski , Rafał Weron

Due to the liberalization of markets, the change in the energy mix and the surrounding energy laws, electricity research is a dynamically altering field with steadily changing challenges. One challenge especially for investment decisions is…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-12-27 Rick Steinert , Florian Ziel

According to the fundamental theorems of welfare economics, any competitive equilibrium is Pareto efficient. Unfortunately, competitive equilibrium prices only exist under strong assumptions such as perfectly divisible goods and convex…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Mete Şeref Ahunbay , Martin Bichler , Johannes Knörr

The study of Day-Ahead prices in the electricity market is one of the most popular problems in time series forecasting. Previous research has focused on employing increasingly complex learning algorithms to capture the sophisticated…

Applications · Statistics 2024-04-29 Carlos Sebastián , Carlos E. González-Guillén , Jesús Juan

Reliability Options are capacity remuneration mechanisms aimed at enhancing security of supply in electricity systems. They can be framed as call options on electricity sold by power producers to System Operators. This paper provides a…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2019-09-13 Luisa Andreis , Maria Flora , Fulvio Fontini , Tiziano Vargiolu

Researchers and electricity sector practitioners frequently require the supply curve of electricity markets and the price elasticity of supply for purposes such as price forecasting, policy analyses or market power assessment. It is common…

In this paper, statistical machine learning algorithms, as well as deep neural networks, are used to predict the values of the price gap between day-ahead and real-time electricity markets. Several exogenous features are collected and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-12-24 Nika Nizharadze , Arash Farokhi Soofi , Saeed D. Manshadi

The problem of dynamic pricing of electricity in a retail market is considered. A Stackelberg game is used to model interactions between a retailer and its customers; the retailer sets the day-ahead hourly price of electricity and consumers…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-03-01 Liyan Jia , Lang Tong

The European power grid can be divided into several market areas where the price of electricity is determined in a day-ahead auction. Market participants can provide continuous hourly bid curves and combinatorial bids with associated…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-03-02 Alexander Martin , Johannes C. Müller , Sebastian Pokutta

Electricity market operators worldwide use mixed-integer linear programming to solve the allocation problem in wholesale electricity markets. Prices are typically determined based on the duals of relaxed versions of this optimization…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Mete Şeref Ahunbay , Martin Bichler , Teodora Dobos , Johannes Knörr

The participation of consumers and producers in demand response programs has increased in smart grids, which reduces investment and operation costs of power systems. Also, with the advent of renewable energy sources, the electricity market…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-29 Nafise Rezaei , Roozbeh Rajabi , Abouzar Estebsari

The problem of heat system pricing is considered. A direct extension of locational marginal prices (LMP) in electricity markets to heat systems may lead to revenue inadequate issues. The underlying reason for such a problem is that, unlike…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-08-18 Xinyi Yi , Ye Guo , Hongbin Sun

Recent studies concerning the point electricity price forecasting have shown evidence that the hourly German Intraday Continuous Market is weak-form efficient. Therefore, we take a novel, advanced approach to the problem. A probabilistic…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-02 Michał Narajewski , Florian Ziel

Accurate prediction of electricity prices plays an essential role in the electricity market. To reflect the uncertainty of electricity prices, price intervals are predicted. This paper proposes a novel prediction interval construction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-15 Xin Lu

Optimizing the total cost of power systems is a common tool for network operation and planning. Besides valuable information about how to run and possibly expand a power system, the optimization provides an optimal Locational Marginal Price…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-03-18 Fabian Hofmann , Markus Schlott

Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is a branch of forecasting on the interface of electrical engineering, statistics, computer science, and finance, which focuses on predicting prices in wholesale electricity markets for a whole spectrum…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-04-26 Arkadiusz Jędrzejewski , Jesus Lago , Grzegorz Marcjasz , Rafał Weron

We analyse the drivers of European Power Exchange (EPEX) wholesale electricity prices between 2012 and early 2022 using machine learning. The agnostic random forest approach that we use is able to reduce in-sample root mean square errors…

General Economics · Economics 2022-09-01 Emanuel Kohlscheen , Richhild Moessner