Related papers: Global warming in the pipeline
Long-range climate forecasts use integrated assessment models to link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework outlined in part 1 of this study (Garrett, 2014) that approaches…
The attribution of part of global warming to changes in the total solar irradiance (TSI) is an important topic which is not, yet, fully understood. Here, we examine the TSI induced temperature (T) changes on a variety of time scales, from…
It is tested whether past abrupt climate changes support the validity of statistical early-warning signals (EWS) as predictor of future climate tipping points. EWS are expected increases in amplitude and correlation of fluctuations driven…
We study the mitigation of climate tipping point transitions using an energy balance model. The evolution of the global mean surface temperature is coupled with the CO2 concentration through the green house effect. We model the CO2…
To limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius, fossil-free energy systems will be required eventually. To understand how such systems can be designed, the current state-of-the-art is to apply techno-economical optimisation…
Global warming is projected to intensify the hydrological cycle, amplifying risks to ecosystems and society. While extreme rainfall appears to exhibit stronger sensitivity to global warming compared to mean rainfall rates, a unifying…
Approximately 1.4 Ga after life first appeared, atmospheric oxygen suddenly jumped by more than an order of magnitude over a 20-50 Ma period. The contrast between these two timescales does not seem to be due to any sudden, large amplitude…
In this report, a simple experimental system is shown, by which the temperature rise of global warming due to greenhouse gases can be demonstrated quantitatively. The system configuration is similar to that of the earth-atmosphere-space…
How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climate variability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of the surface…
We revisit a recent claim that the Earth's climate system is characterized by sensitive dependence to parameters; in particular, that the system exhibits an asymmetric, large-amplitude response to normally distributed feedback forcing. Such…
Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet…
Vital parts of the climate system, such as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, are at risk even within the aspired aims of the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 -- 2{\deg}C. These so-called natural tipping elements are…
We use a three-dimensional model to calculate steady-state climates at various intervals in Earth's future, across a parameter space of increasing insolation and decreasing CO$_2$ mixing ratio. Comparison with prior results shows an…
Ozone in Earth's atmosphere is known to have a radiative forcing effect on climate. Motivated by geochemical evidence for one or more nearby supernovae about 2.6 million years ago, we have investigated the question of whether a supernova at…
The observed global mean surface temperature increase from 1998 to 2012 was slower than that since 1951. The relative contributions of all relevant factors including climate forcers, however, have not been comprehensively analyzed. Using a…
The ultimate climate emergency is a "runaway greenhouse": a hot and water vapour rich atmosphere limits the emission of thermal radiation to space, causing runaway warming. Warming ceases only once the surface reaches ~1400K and emits…
The influence of atmospheric composition on the climates of present-day and early Earth has been studied extensively, but the role of ocean composition has received less attention. We use the ROCKE-3D ocean-atmosphere general circulation…
A comparison of northern and southern hemispheric paleotemperature profiles suggests that the Bolling-Allerod Interstadial, Younger Dryas stadial, and subsequent Preboreal warming which occurred at the end of the last ice age were…
While the global-average temperatures are rapidly rising, more researchers have been shifting their focus towards the past mass-extinction events in order to show the relations between temperature increase and temperature thresholds which…
Using a gap-free, millennial-resolution ice-core record spanning the last 130,000 years, we identify the feedback architecture between Antarctic temperature and atmospheric CO$_2$. The series are found to be cointegrated, justifying…