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This paper presents a framework for binary autoregressive time series in which each observation is a Bernoulli variable whose success probability evolves with past outcomes and probabilities, in the spirit of GARCH-type dynamics,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-17 Anna Bykhovskaya , Nour Meddahi

The medical community believes binary medical event outcomes in EHR data contain sufficient information for making a sensible recommendation. However, there are two challenges to effectively utilizing such data: (1) modeling the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-09-12 Xihao Piao , Pei Gao , Zheng Chen , Lingwei Zhu , Yasuko Matsubara , Yasushi Sakurai , Jimeng Sun

Graphical models are widely used to study biological networks. Interventions on network nodes are an important feature of many experimental designs for the study of biological networks. In this paper we put forward a causal variant of…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-17 Simon E. F. Spencer , Steven M. Hill , Sach Mukherjee

A novel method for estimating Bayesian network (BN) parameters from data is presented which provides improved performance on test data. Previous research has shown the value of representing conditional probability distributions (CPDs) via…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Geoff A. Jarrad

By applying Sklar's theorem to the Multivariate Bernoulli Distribution (MBD), this paper proposes a framework to decouple marginal distributions from the dependence structure, clarifying interactions among binary variables. Explicit…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-16 Arturo Erdely

Statistical inference in high-dimensional settings is challenging when standard unregularized methods are employed. In this work, we focus on the case of multiple correlated proportions for which we develop a Bayesian inference framework.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-23 Max Westphal

In today's data driven world, storing, processing, and gleaning insights from large-scale data are major challenges. Data compression is often required in order to store large amounts of high-dimensional data, and thus, efficient inference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-11 Denali Molitor , Deanna Needell

We introduce a new general modeling approach for multivariate discrete event data with categorical interacting marks, which we refer to as marked Bernoulli processes. In the proposed model, the probability of an event of a specific category…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-13 Anatoli Juditsky , Arkadi Nemirovski , Liyan Xie , Yao Xie

A time-varying bivariate copula joint model, which models the repeatedly measured longitudinal outcome at each time point and the survival data jointly by both the random effects and time-varying bivariate copulas, is proposed in this…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-03 Zili Zhang , Christiana Charalambous , Peter Foster

Integrating data from multiple heterogeneous sources has become increasingly popular to achieve a large sample size and diverse study population. This paper reviews development in causal inference methods that combines multiple datasets…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-05 Xu Shi , Ziyang Pan , Wang Miao

The Dirichlet Belief Network~(DirBN) has been recently proposed as a promising approach in learning interpretable deep latent representations for objects. In this work, we leverage its interpretable modelling architecture and propose a deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-30 Yaqiong Li , Xuhui Fan , Ling Chen , Bin Li , Zheng Yu , Scott A. Sisson

We discuss a general method to construct correlated binomial distributions by imposing several consistent relations on the joint probability function. We obtain self-consistency relations for the conditional correlations and conditional…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 M. Hisakado , K. Kitsukawa , S. Mori

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. However, in BNNs the priors are often specified over the weights which rarely reflects true prior knowledge in large and complex neural network…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-25 Vishnu Raj , Tianyu Cui , Markus Heinonen , Pekka Marttinen

A new modeling framework for bipartite social networks arising from a sequence of partially time-ordered relational events is proposed. We directly model the joint distribution of the binary variables indicating if each single actor is…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-23 Francesco Bartolucci , Antonietta Mira , Stefano Peluso

A major benefit of graphical models is that most knowledge is captured in the model structure. Many models, however, produce inference problems with a lot of symmetries not reflected in the graphical structure and hence not exploitable by…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-05-14 Kristian Kersting , Babak Ahmadi , Sriraam Natarajan

Binary classification is a task that involves the classification of data into one of two distinct classes. It is widely utilized in various fields. However, conventional classifiers tend to make overconfident predictions for data that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-13 Shoma Yokura , Akihisa Ichiki

Directional data require specialized probability models because of the non-Euclidean and periodic nature of their domain. When a directional variable is observed jointly with linear variables, modeling their dependence adds an additional…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-22 Tong Zou , Hal S. Stern

Many scientific and industrial processes produce data that is best analysed as vectors of relative values, often called compositions or proportions. The Dirichlet distribution is a natural distribution to use for composition or proportion…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-15 Sean van der Merwe

We introduce De Bruijn Graph Neural Networks (DBGNNs), a novel time-aware graph neural network architecture for time-resolved data on dynamic graphs. Our approach accounts for temporal-topological patterns that unfold in the causal topology…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-20 Lisi Qarkaxhija , Vincenzo Perri , Ingo Scholtes

The assumption of independence between observations (units) in a dataset is prevalent across various methodologies for learning causal graphical models. However, this assumption often finds itself in conflict with real-world data, posing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-31 Alex Chen , Qing Zhou