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We present machine learning estimators for causal and predictive parameters under covariate shift, where covariate distributions differ between training and target populations. One such parameter is the average effect of a policy that…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Victor Chernozhukov , Michael Newey , Whitney K Newey , Rahul Singh , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Despite achieving excellent performance on benchmarks, deep neural networks often underperform in real-world deployment due to sensitivity to minor, often imperceptible shifts in input data, known as distributional shifts. These shifts are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-25 Birk Torpmann-Hagen , Pål Halvorsen , Michael A. Riegler , Dag Johansen

Synthetic control methods can produce misleading counterfactual predictions when outcome series contain unit-specific stochastic trends, a common feature of nonstationary macroeconomic data. Existing remedies, such as pre-filtering or…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-21 Ziyi Liu , Yiqing Xu

Out-of-distribution (OOD) prediction is often approached by restricting models to causal or invariant covariates, avoiding non-causal spurious associations that may be unstable across environments. Despite its theoretical appeal, this…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-06 Shuozhi Zuo , Yixin Wang

When faced with distribution shift at test time, deep neural networks often make inaccurate predictions with unreliable uncertainty estimates. While improving the robustness of neural networks is one promising approach to mitigate this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-28 Aurick Zhou , Sergey Levine

We introduce a fine-grained framework for uncertainty quantification of predictive models under distributional shifts. This framework distinguishes the shift in covariate distributions from that in the conditional relationship between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Jiahao Ai , Zhimei Ren

We consider a covariate shift problem where one has access to several different training datasets for the same learning problem and a small validation set which possibly differs from all the individual training distributions. This covariate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-16 Matthew Faw , Rajat Sen , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Constantine Caramanis , Sanjay Shakkottai

Classical supervised learning produces unreliable models when training and target distributions differ, with most existing solutions requiring samples from the target domain. We propose a proactive approach which learns a relationship in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-01 Adarsh Subbaswamy , Peter Schulam , Suchi Saria

In supervised learning, training and test datasets are often sampled from distinct distributions. Domain adaptation techniques are thus required. Covariate shift adaptation yields good generalization performance when domains differ only by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-11 Felipe Maia Polo , Renato Vicente

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-12 Guy Horowitz , Nir Rosenfeld

We investigate the use of a non-parametric independence measure, the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC), as a loss-function for learning robust regression and classification models. This loss-function encourages learning models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Daniel Greenfeld , Uri Shalit

Variable selection, also known as feature selection in machine learning, plays an important role in modeling high dimensional data and is key to data-driven scientific discoveries. We consider here the problem of detecting influential…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-09-24 Bo Jiang , Jun S. Liu

The endeavor to preserve the generalization of a fair and invariant classifier across domains, especially in the presence of distribution shifts, becomes a significant and intricate challenge in machine learning. In response to this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Chen Zhao , Kai Jiang , Xintao Wu , Haoliang Wang , Latifur Khan , Christan Grant , Feng Chen

Contrastive learning is a family of self-supervised methods where a model is trained to solve a classification task constructed from unlabeled data. It has recently emerged as one of the leading learning paradigms in the absence of labels…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-05 Bingbin Liu , Pradeep Ravikumar , Andrej Risteski

Adversarial attack perturbs an image with an imperceptible noise, leading to incorrect model prediction. Recently, a few works showed inherent bias associated with such attack (robustness bias), where certain subgroups in a dataset (e.g.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-06 Gaurav Kumar Nayak , Ruchit Rawal , Rohit Lal , Himanshu Patil , Anirban Chakraborty

Machine learning algorithms with empirical risk minimization are vulnerable under distributional shifts due to the greedy adoption of all the correlations found in training data. Recently, there are robust learning methods aiming at this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-12 Jiashuo Liu , Zheyan Shen , Peng Cui , Linjun Zhou , Kun Kuang , Bo Li , Yishi Lin

Many systems contain latent variables that make their dynamics partially unidentifiable or cause distribution shifts in the observed statistics between offline and online data. However, existing control techniques often assume access to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-24 Haoming Jing , Yorie Nakahira

Investigation of machine learning algorithms robust to changes between the training and test distributions is an active area of research. In this paper we explore a special type of dataset shift which we call class-dependent domain shift.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-13 Tigran Galstyan , Hrant Khachatrian , Greg Ver Steeg , Aram Galstyan

In health related machine learning applications, the training data often corresponds to a non-representative sample from the target populations where the learners will be deployed. In anticausal prediction tasks, selection biases often make…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-10 Elias Chaibub Neto , Phil Snyder , Solveig K Sieberts , Larsson Omberg

An important challenge facing modern machine learning is how to rigorously quantify the uncertainty of model predictions. Conveying uncertainty is especially important when there are changes to the underlying data distribution that might…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-17 Sangdon Park , Edgar Dobriban , Insup Lee , Osbert Bastani
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