Related papers: Multifidelity conditional value-at-risk estimation…

We propose a multi-fidelity Bayesian emulator for the analysis of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model when the available simulations are not generated based on hierarchically nested experimental design. The proposed procedure,…

How can we efficiently gather information to optimize an unknown function, when presented with multiple, mutually dependent information sources with different costs? For example, when optimizing a robotic system, intelligently trading off…

Optimizing risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of a general loss distribution is usually difficult, because 1) the loss function might lack structural properties such as convexity or…

Selecting high-quality candidates from large datasets is critical in applications such as drug discovery, precision medicine, and alignment of large language models (LLMs). While Conformal Selection (CS) provides rigorous uncertainty…

In this work, we propose a new Gaussian process regression (GPR)-based multifidelity method: physics-informed CoKriging (CoPhIK). In CoKriging-based multifidelity methods, the quantities of interest are modeled as linear combinations of…

Robustness under perturbation and contamination is a prominent issue in statistical learning. We address the robust nonlinear regression based on the so-called interval conditional value-at-risk (In-CVaR), which is introduced to enhance…

In spatial statistics, a common objective is to predict values of a spatial process at unobserved locations by exploiting spatial dependence. Kriging provides the best linear unbiased predictor using covariance functions and is often…

CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) is a risk metric widely used in finance. However, dynamically optimizing CVaR is difficult since it is not a standard Markov decision process (MDP) and the principle of dynamic programming fails. In this…

Continued demand for accurate and computationally efficient transport methods to solve optically thick, fixed-source transport problems has inspired research on variance-reduction (VR) techniques for Monte Carlo (MC). Methods that use…

Very-low-Earth orbit drag uncertainty quantification in the rarefied/transitional Knudsen-number regime requires estimating not only the mean drag coefficient but also higher-order moments under atmospheric variability, which becomes…

Biased enhanced sampling methods utilizing collective variables (CVs) are powerful tools for sampling conformational ensembles. Due to high intrinsic dimensions, efficiently generating conformational ensembles for complex systems requires…

Diffusion models offer a robust framework for sampling from unnormalized probability densities, which requires accurately estimating the score of the noise-perturbed target distribution. While the standard Denoising Score Identity (DSI)…

We propose and analyze algorithms for distributionally robust optimization of convex losses with conditional value at risk (CVaR) and $\chi^2$ divergence uncertainty sets. We prove that our algorithms require a number of gradient…

Feature screening approaches are effective in selecting active features from data with ultrahigh dimensionality and increasing complexity; however, the majority of existing feature screening approaches are either restricted to a univariate…

Determining risk contributions of unit exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital is an important task in financial risk management. Computing risk contributions involves difficulties caused by rare-event simulations. In this study, we…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods often take many iterations to converge for highly correlated or high-dimensional target density functions. Methods such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) or No-U-Turn Sampling (NUTS) use the…

In this paper, a new way to integrate volatility information for estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a portfolio is suggested. The new method is developed from the perspective of Bayesian statistics and it…

Though deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has obtained substantial success, it may encounter catastrophic failures due to the intrinsic uncertainty of both transition and observation. Most of the existing methods for safe reinforcement…

Dimensionally decomposed generalized polynomial chaos expansion (DD-GPCE) efficiently performs forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) in complex engineering systems with high-dimensional random inputs of arbitrary distributions. However,…

Composite materials exhibit strongly hierarchical and anisotropic properties governed by coupled mechanisms spanning constituents, plies, laminates, structures, and manufacturing history. This intrinsic complexity makes predictive modeling…