Related papers: Auxiliary Quantile Forecasting with Linear Network…

Online learning with streaming data in a distributed and collaborative manner can be useful in a wide range of applications. This topic has been receiving considerable attention in recent years with emphasis on both single-task and…

This study proposes a novel method for forecasting a scalar variable based on high-dimensional predictors that is applicable to various data distributions. In the literature, one of the popular approaches for forecasting with many…

Probabilistic forecasting of irregularly sampled multivariate time series with missing values is an important problem in many fields, including health care, astronomy, and climate. State-of-the-art methods for the task estimate only…

Recent advances in deep learning have shown that uncertainty estimation is becoming increasingly important in applications such as medical imaging, natural language processing, and autonomous systems. However, accurately quantifying…

Predictive uncertainty in hydrological modelling is quantified by using post-processing or Bayesian-based methods. The former methods are not straightforward and the latter ones are not distribution-free (i.e. assumptions on the probability…

This paper introduces a comprehensive, multi-stage machine learning methodology that effectively integrates information systems and artificial intelligence to enhance decision-making processes within the domain of operations research. The…

Calibration error is commonly adopted for evaluating the quality of uncertainty estimators in deep neural networks. In this paper, we argue that such a metric is highly beneficial for training predictive models, even when we do not…

Financial time-series forecasting has long been a challenging problem because of the inherently noisy and stochastic nature of the market. In the High-Frequency Trading (HFT), forecasting for trading purposes is even a more challenging task…

In this paper, we address the challenge of multivariate time-series forecasting using quantum machine learning techniques. We introduce adaptation strategies that extend variational quantum circuit models, traditionally limited to…

Subseasonal precipitation forecasting is inherently uncertain due to chaotic atmospheric dynamics, making reliable uncertainty estimation essential for real-world applications. Existing approaches typically represent uncertainty through…

Multi-task learning (MTL) is a methodology that aims to improve the general performance of estimation and prediction by sharing common information among related tasks. In the MTL, there are several assumptions for the relationships and…

In this paper we propose the adaptive lasso for predictive quantile regression (ALQR). Reflecting empirical findings, we allow predictors to have various degrees of persistence and exhibit different signal strengths. The number of…

Forecasting tasks using large datasets gathering thousands of heterogeneous time series is a crucial statistical problem in numerous sectors. The main challenge is to model a rich variety of time series, leverage any available external…

Sufficiently modeling the correlations among variables (aka channels) is crucial for achieving accurate multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF). In this paper, we propose a novel technique called Temporal Query (TQ) to more effectively…

This paper proposes a nonparametric multivariate density forecast model based on deep learning. It not only offers the whole marginal distribution of each random variable in forecasting targets, but also reveals the future correlation…

This paper proposes a new objective function and quantile regression (QR) algorithm for load forecasting (LF). In LF, the positive forecasting errors often have different economic impact from the negative forecasting errors. Considering…

Estimating the data uncertainty in regression tasks is often done by learning a quantile function or a prediction interval of the true label conditioned on the input. It is frequently observed that quantile regression -- a vanilla algorithm…

Gradient-based meta-learners such as MAML are able to learn a meta-prior from similar tasks to adapt to novel tasks from the same distribution with few gradient updates. One important limitation of such frameworks is that they seek a common…

With the widespread adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing need to establish best practices for leveraging their capabilities beyond traditional natural language tasks. In this paper, a novel cross-domain knowledge…

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex…