Related papers: Bayesian Reconciliation of Return Predictability
Competing risks models for a repairable system subject to several failure modes are discussed. Under minimal repair, it is assumed that each failure mode has a power law intensity. An orthogonal reparametrization is used to obtain an…
Covariance estimation and selection for multivariate datasets in a high-dimensional regime is a fundamental problem in modern statistics. Gaussian graphical models are a popular class of models used for this purpose. Current Bayesian…
The Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average (VARMA) model is fundamental to the theory of multivariate time series; however, identifiability issues have led practitioners to abandon it in favor of the simpler but more restrictive Vector…
In the Bayesian approach, the a priori knowledge about the input of a mathematical model is described via a probability measure. The joint distribution of the unknown input and the data is then conditioned, using Bayes' formula, giving rise…
The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been widely used for modeling temporal dependence in a multivariate time series. For large (and even moderate) dimensions, the number of AR coefficients can be prohibitively large, resulting in…
Vector autogressions (VARs) are widely applied when it comes to modeling and forecasting macroeconomic variables. In high dimensions, however, they are prone to overfitting. Bayesian methods, more concretely shrinkage priors, have shown to…
We propose a vector auto-regressive (VAR) model with a low-rank constraint on the transition matrix. This new model is well suited to predict high-dimensional series that are highly correlated, or that are driven by a small number of hidden…
Variational Bayes (VB) has been used to facilitate the calculation of the posterior distribution in the context of Bayesian inference of the parameters of nonlinear models from data. Previously an analytical formulation of VB has been…
Variable selection in linear regression has been a central topic in statistical research for decades. Bayesian variable selection methods, which account for uncertainty in both the regression coefficients and the noise variance, have…
We propose and analyze a Stein variational reduced basis method (SVRB) to solve large-scale PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems. To address the computational challenge of drawing numerous samples requiring expensive PDE solves from…
The availability of data from multiple heterogeneous environments has motivated methods that remain reliable under distributional shifts. When the joint distribution of response and predictors varies across environments, the response may…
In this paper we forecast daily returns of crypto-currencies using a wide variety of different econometric models. To capture salient features commonly observed in financial time series like rapid changes in the conditional variance,…
This work considers variational Bayesian inference as an inexpensive and scalable alternative to a fully Bayesian approach in the context of sparsity-promoting priors. In particular, the priors considered arise from scale mixtures of Normal…
Current methods for learning graphical models with latent variables and a fixed structure estimate optimal values for the model parameters. Whereas this approach usually produces overfitting and suboptimal generalization performance,…
We extend the work of Hahn and Carvalho (2015) and develop a doubly-regularized sparse regression estimator by synthesizing Bayesian regularization with penalized least squares within a decision-theoretic framework. In contrast to existing…
Bayesian models often involve a small set of hyperparameters determined by maximizing the marginal likelihood. Bayesian optimization is a popular iterative method where a Gaussian process posterior of the underlying function is sequentially…
The models used to describe the kinetics of ruminal degradation are usually nonlinear models where the dependent variable is the proportion of degraded food. The method of least squares is the standard approach used to estimate the unknown…
During the past decade, shrinkage priors have received much attention in Bayesian analysis of high-dimensional data. This paper establishes the posterior consistency for high-dimensional linear regression with a class of shrinkage priors,…
We consider a statistical model for pairs of traded assets, based on a Cointegrated Vector Auto Regression (CVAR) Model. We extend standard CVAR models to incorporate estimation of model parameters in the presence of price series level…
We propose a recursive Bayesian estimation procedure for multivariate autoregressive models with exogenous inputs based on message passing in a factor graph. Unlike recursive least-squares, our method produces full posterior distributions…