Related papers: GAN-MC: a Variance Reduction Tool for Derivatives …
In general, the pricing of variable annuities with guarantees can be done by solving the corresponding optimal stochastic control problem if the contract withdrawal strategy is assumed to be optimal. This is typically solved as a dynamic…
The Black-Scholes model (sometimes known as the Black-Scholes-Merton model) gives a theoretical estimate for the price of European options. The price evolution under this model is described by the Black-Scholes formula, one of the most…
We consider a portfolio with call option and the corresponding underlying asset under the standard assumption that stock-market price represents a random variable with lognormal distribution. Minimizing the variance (hedging risk) of the…
We propose a variance reduction framework for variational inference using the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method. Our framework is built on reparameterized gradient estimators and "recycles" parameters obtained from past update history in…
Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
Stochastic differential equation (SDE) models are the foundation for pricing and hedging financial derivatives. The drift and volatility functions in SDE models are typically chosen to be algebraic functions with a small number (less than…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods have successfully been used in many applications in engineering, statistics and physics. However, these are seldom used in financial option pricing literature and practice. This paper presents SMC method…
Pricing advanced data products - particularly in complex fields such as semiconductor manufacturing - is a fundamentally challenging task due to the sparsity of publicly available transaction data, and its frequent heterogeneity and…
Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method is a useful numerical tool for pricing and hedging of complex financial derivatives. These problems are usually of high dimensionality and discontinuities. The two factors may significantly deteriorate the…
Many probabilistic models of interest in scientific computing and machine learning have expensive, black-box likelihoods that prevent the application of standard techniques for Bayesian inference, such as MCMC, which would require access to…
This paper uses deep learning to value derivatives. The approach is broadly applicable, and we use a call option on a basket of stocks as an example. We show that the deep learning model is accurate and very fast, capable of producing…
In this report, we present qualitative analysis of Monte Carlo (MC) dropout method for measuring model uncertainty in neural network (NN) models. We first consider the sources of uncertainty in NNs, and briefly review Bayesian Neural…
This study investigates enhancing option pricing by extending the Black-Scholes model to include stochastic volatility and interest rate variability within the Partial Differential Equation (PDE). The PDE is solved using the finite…
Modeling counterparty risk is computationally challenging because it requires the simultaneous evaluation of all the trades with each counterparty under both market and credit risk. We present a multi-Gaussian process regression approach,…
Computational efficiency is essential for enhancing the accuracy and practicality of pricing complex financial derivatives. In this paper, we discuss Isogeometric Analysis (IGA) for valuing financial derivatives, modeled by two nonlinear…
Proof that under simple assumptions, such as constraints of Put-Call Parity, the probability measure for the valuation of a European option has the mean derived from the forward price which can, but does not have to be the risk-neutral one,…
Discrete choice models are commonly used by applied statisticians in numerous fields, such as marketing, economics, finance, and operations research. When agents in discrete choice models are assumed to have differing preferences, exact…
We explore the possibilities of importance sampling in the Monte Carlo pricing of a structured credit derivative referred to as Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO). Modeling a CDO contract is challenging, since it depends on a pool of…
Options have provided a field of much study because of the complexity involved in pricing them. The Black-Scholes equations were developed to price options but they are only valid for European styled options. There is added complexity when…
We introduce a Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method, which provides prediction of future paths, given any generative model. At any given date, it averages future quantities over generated price paths whose past history matches, or `shadows',…