Related papers: On Bernoulli trials with unequal harmonic success …
In this work, Bernoulli's Law of Large Numbers, also known as the Golden theorem, has been extended to study the relations between empirical probability and empirical randomness of an otherwise random experiment. Using the example of a coin…
We analyse the asymptotic behaviour of the probability of observing the expected number of successes at each stage of a sequence of nested Bernoulli trials. Our motivation is the attempt to give a genuinely frequentist interpretation to the…
We shall show in this paper that there are experiments which are Bernoulli trials with success probability p > 0.5, and which have the curious feature that it is possible to correctly predict the outcome with probability > p.
One-sided confidence intervals are presented for the average of non-identical Bernoulli parameters. These confidence intervals are expressed as analytical functions of the total number of Bernoulli games won, the number of rounds and the…
We investigate statistical inference across time scales. We take as toy model the estimation of the intensity of a discretely observed compound Poisson process with symmetric Bernoulli jumps. We have data at different time scales:…
We approximate the distribution of the sum of independent but not necessarily identically distributed Bernoulli random variables using a shifted binomial distribution where the three parameters (the number of trials, the probability of…
Many experiments are concerned with the comparison of counts between treatment groups. Examples include the number of successful signups in conversion rate experiments, or the number of errors produced by software versions in canary…
Suppose $N$ independent Bernoulli trials are observed sequentially at random times of a mixed binomial process. The task is to maximise, by using a nonanticipating stopping strategy, the probability of stopping at the last success. We focus…
Consider a discrete-time optimal selection problem where one observes a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials and receives a nonnegative reward upon stopping on a success. The aim is to find a single-choice strategy that maximises the…
We provide Buehler-optimal one-sided and some valid two-sided confidence intervals for the average success probability of a possibly inhomogeneous fixed length Bernoulli chain, based on the number of observed successes. Contrary to some…
The study of sums of possibly associated Bernoulli random variables has been hampered by an asymmetry between positive correlation and negative correlation. The Conway-Maxwell Binomial (COMB) distribution and its multivariate extension, the…
We study the fundamental problem of learning an unknown, smooth probability function via pointwise Bernoulli tests. We provide a scalable algorithm for efficiently solving this problem with rigorous guarantees. In particular, we prove the…
This work investigates the optimal selection of the $m$th last success in a sequence of $n$ independent Bernoulli trials. We propose a threshold strategy that is $\varepsilon$-optimal under minimal assumptions about the monotonicity of the…
The last success problem is an optimal stopping problem that aims to maximize the probability of stopping on the last success in a sequence of independent $n$ Bernoulli trials. In the classical setting where complete information about the…
We introduce a series of numbers which serve as a generalization of Bernoulli, Euler numbers and binomial coefficients. Their properties are applied to solve a probability problem and suggest a statistical test for independence and…
We discuss a general method to construct correlated binomial distributions by imposing several consistent relations on the joint probability function. We obtain self-consistency relations for the conditional correlations and conditional…
The impetus for writing this paper are the well publicized media reports that software failure was the cause of the two recent mishaps of the Boeing 737 Max aircraft. The problem considered here though, is a specific one, in the sense that…
We show posterior convergence for the community structure in the planted bi-section model, for several interesting priors. Examples include where the label on each vertex is iid Bernoulli distributed, with some parameter $r\in(0,1)$. The…
We consider the problem of determining feasible systems from a finite set of simulated alternatives with respect to probability constraints, where the observations from stochastic simulations are Bernoulli distributed. Most statistically…
Trace monoids and heaps of pieces appear in various contexts in combinatorics. They also constitute a model used in computer science to describe the executions of asynchronous systems. The design of a natural probabilistic layer on top of…