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A full Bayesian approach to the estimation of Vaccine Efficacy is presented, which is an improvement over the currently used exact method conditional on the total number of cases. As an example, we reconsider the statistical sections of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-09 Mauro Gasparini

Although randomized controlled trials have long been regarded as the ``gold standard'' for evaluating treatment effects, there is no natural prevention from post-treatment events. For example, non-compliance makes the actual treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-25 Qinqing Liu , Xiang Peng , Tao Zhang , Yuhao Deng

In vaccine studies for infectious diseases such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the frequency and type of contacts between study participants and infectious sources are among the most informative risk factors, but are often not…

Applications · Statistics 2012-08-27 Yang Yang , Peter Gilbert , Ira M. Longini, , M. Elizabeth Halloran

Incorporating vaccination into mathematical models appears deceptively simple: models integrate vaccine-derived protections, such as reduced susceptibility to infection, using parameters informed by empirical estimates of vaccine efficacy…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-05-19 Casey E. Middleton , Oliver Eales , James M. McCaw , Freya M. Shearer

Knowledge of the protection afforded by vaccines might, in some circumstances, modify a vaccinated individual's behaviour, potentially increasing exposure to pathogens and hindering effectiveness. Although vaccine studies typically do not…

The advent and subsequent widespread availability of preventive vaccines has altered the course of public health over the past century. Despite this success, effective vaccines to prevent many high-burden diseases, including HIV, have been…

Randomized trials are often conducted with separate randomizations across multiple sites such as schools, voting districts, or hospitals. These sites can differ in important ways, including the site's implementation, local conditions, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-19 Lo-Hua Yuan , Avi Feller , Luke W. Miratrix

Applied researchers in biomedicine and related fields are often interested in estimating the causal effect of a treatment or intervention. Although randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for establishing causal effects,…

Vaccination is an effective way to prevent and control the occurrence and epidemic of infectious diseases. However, many factors influence whether the residents decide to get vaccinated or not, such as the efficacy and side effects while…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-03-09 Yingyue Ke , Jin Zhou

Researchers are often interested in treatment effects on outcomes that are only defined conditional on a post-treatment event status. For example, in a study of the effect of different cancer treatments on quality of life at end of…

We propose a framework for the description of the effects of vaccinations on the spreading of an epidemic disease. Different vaccines can be dosed, each providing different immunization times and immunization levels. Differences due to…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2024-07-23 Rinaldo M. Colombo , Mauro Garavello

This paper provides a nonparametric framework for causal inference with categorical outcomes under binary treatment and binary instrument settings. I decompose the observed joint probability of outcomes and treatment into marginal…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-11 Onil Boussim

The response of the immune system to different vaccination patterns is studied with a simple model. It is argued that the history and characteristics of the pattern defines very different secondary immune responses in the case of infection.…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2009-11-10 P. Etchegoin

The rapid outbreak of bird flu challenges the outcome of effective vaccine for the upcoming years. The recent research established different norms to eliminate flu pandemics. This can be made possible with skilled experimental analyses and…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2012-06-06 Baby Jerald , T. R. Gopalakrishnan Nair

Understanding how the causal effect of a treatment evolves over time, including the potential for waning, is important for informed decisions on treatment discontinuation or repetition. For example, waning vaccine protection influences…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-25 Eni Musta , Joris Mooij

Given limited supply of approved vaccines and constrained medical resources, design of a vaccination strategy to control a pandemic is an economic problem. We use time-series and panel methods with real-world country-level data to estimate…

General Economics · Economics 2022-01-19 Dongwoo Kim , Young Jun Lee

The test-negative design (TND) has become a standard approach to evaluate vaccine effectiveness against the risk of acquiring infectious diseases in real-world settings, such as Influenza, Rotavirus, Dengue fever, and more recently…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-09 Kendrick Qijun Li , Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Based on recent studies, some COVID-19 symptoms can persist for months after infection, leading to what is termed long COVID. Factors such as vaccination timing, patient characteristics, and symptoms during the acute phase of infection may…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-30 Milad Leyli-abadi , Jean-Patrick Brunet , Axel Tahmasebimoradi

In sequential causal inference, one estimates the causal net effect of treatment in treatment sequence on an outcome after last treatment in the presence of time-dependent covariates between treatments, improves the estimation by the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-18 Li Yin , Xiaoqin Wang

Background: The Cox model and its extensions assuming proportional hazards is widely used to estimate vaccine efficacy (VE). In the typical situation that VE wanes over time, the VE estimates are not only sensitive to study duration and…

Applications · Statistics 2025-09-10 Ziwei Zhao , Xiangmei Ma , Paul Milligan , Yin Bun Cheung