Related papers: Bayesian Multivariate Quantile Regression with alt…
Quantile regression is an important tool for estimation of conditional quantiles of a response Y given a vector of covariates X. It can be used to measure the effect of covariates not only in the center of a distribution, but also in the…
Various spatiotemporal and network GARCH models have recently been proposed to capture volatility interactions, such as the transmission of market risk across financial networks. These approaches rely heavily on the specification of the…
When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior…
This study presents contemporaneous modeling of asset return and price range within the framework of stochastic volatility with leverage. A new representation of the probability density function for the price range is provided, and its…
This article explores the optimization of variational approximations for posterior covariances of Gaussian multiway arrays. To achieve this, we establish a natural differential geometric optimization framework on the space using the…
This paper investigates how the conditional quantiles of future returns and volatility of financial assets vary with various measures of ex-post variation in asset prices as well as option-implied volatility. We work in the flexible…
We formulate a discrete-time Bayesian stochastic volatility model for high-frequency stock-market data that directly accounts for microstructure noise, and outline a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter estimation. The methods…
We propose a factor state-space approach with stochastic volatility to model and forecast the term structure of future contracts on commodities. Our approach builds upon the dynamic 3-factor Nelson-Siegel model and its 4-factor Svensson…
This paper uses simulation-based portfolio optimization to mitigate the left tail risk of the portfolio. The contribution is twofold. (i) We propose the Markov regime-switching GARCH model with multivariate normal tempered stable innovation…
This paper proposes an innovative threshold measurement equation to be employed in a Realized-GARCH framework. The proposed framework incorporates a nonlinear threshold regression specification to consider the leverage effect and model the…
This paper explores the concept of random-time subordination in modelling stock-price dynamics, and We first present results on the Laplace distribution as a Gaussian variance-mixture, in particular a more efficient volatility estimation…
This paper develops a framework for quantile regression in binary longitudinal data settings. A novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is designed to fit the model and its computational efficiency is demonstrated in a simulation…
This paper introduces a spatiotemporal exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (spatiotemporal E-GARCH) model, extending traditional spatiotemporal GARCH models by incorporating asymmetric volatility…
The stochastic volatility model is one of volatility models which infer latent volatility of asset returns. The Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model is performed by the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm which is…
Generating synthetic financial time series that preserve the statistical properties of real market data is essential for stress testing, risk model validation, and scenario design. Existing approaches struggle to simultaneously reproduce…
Spike-and-slab and horseshoe regression are arguably the most popular Bayesian variable selection approaches for linear regression models. However, their performance can deteriorate if outliers and heteroskedasticity are present in the…
We propose a Bayesian non-parametric approach for modeling the distribution of multiple returns. In particular, we use an asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (ADCC) model to estimate the time-varying correlations of financial returns…
We propose a voxel-wise general linear model with autoregressive noise and heteroscedastic noise innovations (GLMH) for analyzing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. The model is analyzed from a Bayesian perspective and has…
A new multivariate stochastic volatility estimation procedure for financial time series is proposed. A Wishart autoregressive process is considered for the volatility precision covariance matrix, for the estimation of which a two step…
We introduce a semiparametric approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by modeling the conditional scale of financial returns, defined as the difference between two specified quantiles, via restricted…